The 2024 NFL season has finally arrived! There’s now a blank slate upon which players will seek to make their imprint. Many of them will be looking to bring home some hardware.
At the top of the list of most prestigious awards sits the NFL MVP. There have been 49 different players to house the Pete Rozelle trophy in the league’s history and it is open for the taking again this year.
With the MVP race wide open as the season gets set to start, here is a look at the opening odds for the biggest threats and some darkhorse names to keep an eye on over on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Patrick Mahomes (+475)
Coming off back-to-back Super Bowl championships and three Lombardi trophies secured already in his NFL career, Patrick Mahomes is off to as great a start to his professional career as one could imagine. Mahomes has already secured MVP honors in 2018 and 2022. He also has an improved wide-receiving core this season following the additions of Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown.
Mahomes is in a dynamic offense and there is zero doubt he will be among the statistical leaders across the NFL. His biggest area of concern will be voter fatigue and the unfortunate reality that voters will likely prefer to give it to a different face if the opportunity presents itself. Even still, there is a level of play that he can play at that is undeniable. Mahomes will almost certainly be in the mix, so this is not a bad ticket to hold, but a bit steeper in price than I would prefer.
C.J. Stroud (+800)
After being drafted as the 2nd overall pick in last year’s NFL Draft, Stroud had one of the most impressive rookie seasons in recent history. The Texans standout threw for 4108 yards through the air along with 23 touchdowns and a league-best 1.0% interception rate.
Stroud has a dynamic wide receiving core with Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, and Tank Dell forming one of the most talented trios in the league. Houston exceeded expectations by a massive margin last season and will be looking to build off this. The +800 odds are less than I would have guessed, but everything about Stroud’s success felt legitimate last year. It feels slightly ahead of his timeline for this upcoming season. But Stroud should be expected to be in the MVP race for a long time coming.
Josh Allen (+900)
Josh Allen has finished top five in MVP voting three times already in his career. While he feels destined to get over this hump at some point, there is not an overly optimistic view of Buffalo this season. After winning 11 or more games in each of the past four seasons, the Bills season-long over/under sits at just 9.5 wins. You can take them at +130 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook to match their 11-6 record last year if you are confident they exceed this.
The most notable loss is top wide receiver Stefon Diggs. He has been Allen’s top target the four years they spent in Buffalo together, eclipsing 1180 yards each season and leading the NFL in yards once. There will be more on Allen’s plate this season to elevate the offense around him. If he is capable of making this happen and leading the Bills to another successful season, the pathway to MVP is there.
However, the turnover problems are still too notable for me to truly believe. Allen has tallied 19 or more turnovers in every season as a pro thus far. Just last year he had 18 interceptions and seven fumbles. This will be an interesting season for Josh Allen and one that will play a major role in defining his NFL career. But there is too much risk for me to believe with my bet slips.
Joe Burrow (+950)
Joe Burrow has every quality you would hope for in a franchise quarterback- except the belief he will be able to regularly stay on the field. The LSU product has battled significant injuries throughout his NFL tenure and this offseason is no different.
Burrow has an especially unique path this season, considering he will be coming back from a torn ligament in his wrist. It’s an injury no quarterback has ever sustained. While he is not expected to miss any time, there have been some concerning reports coming out of training camp regarding some of the limitations for how much he can throw.
If Burrow is on the field and looking like himself, he has a great chance to be in the MVP mix. However, this feels like a more significant risk than many have made it out to be.
Jalen Hurts (+1200)
Flashback to midseason last year: Jalen Hurts was leading a 10-1 Eagles team and considered the MVP favorite. From that point on, the sky fell completely for Hurts and the rest of Philadelphia as an organization. He now faces a crucial year in which he must return to form and cement himself as the franchise quarterback of the future for the Eagles and be in the talks of the best QBs across the NFL.
In Hurts’s defense, he battled a knee injury for most of last season which limited his dual-threat ability. He also was tripped up by the hurdle of the Eagles play call, which rarely set him up for success. Kellen Moore has taken over as offensive coordinator this season and there will be a new system in place. With great weapons around him, a new offensive system, and a return to full health, Hurts is a name to watch this year.
Jordan Love (+1400)
No player rose up the conversation of top quarterbacks and MVP threats as rapidly as Jordan Love. The Packers standout finally got his opportunity to be the full-time starter after watching behind Aaron Rodgers for two seasons. In his 17 games as a starter, Love threw for 4159 passing yards, 32 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions.
While he is on a slightly different pathway due to his time sitting and learning, MVP also feels an ambitious leap for Love. Expect Love to build off last season and look like a legitimate franchise quarterback, but outperforming some of the more notable names across the league feels a bit premature.
Aaron Rodgers: +1800
While Mahomes has a case as well, Aaron Rodgers is the most accomplished name on this list. The Jets quarterback has won MVP four times in his career, claimed the Super Bowl once, been to ten Pro Bowls, and is a four-time All-Pro.
With that said, he is also a 40-year-old quarterback coming off of an Achilles tear who has thrown one pass in the past 18 months.
The Jets are a team built to win now and Rodgers has the talent and defense around him. The fact the team still managed to win seven games last season despite the borderline historically bad quarterback play is telling. But at this point in his career, Rodgers may be reduced to more of a game manager than he once was. Given the uncertainty with his health and age, the +1800 odds are ones I am choosing to stay away from.
Other Odds:
- Jared Goff: +2000
- Dak Prescott: +2000
- Lamar Jackson: +2000
- Brock Purdy: +2000
- Tua Tagovailoa: +2500
- Trevor Lawrence: +3000
- Matt Stafford: +3000
- Anthony Richardson: +3500
- Kirk Cousins: +3500
- Justin Herbert: +3500
- Caleb Williams: +4500
- Kyler Murray: +5000
- Christian McCaffrey: +6000
My Pick: Lamar Jackson (+2000)
I am taking the reigning MVP to lift the trophy again this year. Lamar Jackson has already secured the prestigious award twice in his career and is just now entering his age-27 season. The Baltimore Ravens were one of the biggest winners of the offseason adding Derrick Henry to their already dynamic offense. Henry will be a terrific compliment to Jackson’s running style and Baltimore will likely have the best rushing attack in the NFL.
In some cases, it is a concern that bringing in a talent like Henry could eat into Jackson’s opportunity but don’t expect this to be the case. Unlike quarterbacks like Jalen Hurts or Josh Allen, Jackson is not reliant on the red zone for production on the ground. He will continue to do most of his damage in between the 20-yard lines and this should especially be the case considering he has reportedly lost 25 pounds entering training camp.
This goes without mentioning the production in the passing game. There is even more room to grow in year two with offensive coordinator Todd Monken. Baltimore is third in Super Bowl odds at +1000 and is expected to be among the best teams in the league. Lamar Jackson is sure to be at the heart of this and has a chance to add to his already decorated resume again this year.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
