Update: Antetokounmpo and Middleton, as expected, as both available. The line is now Bucks -2.5 and the total is 233.5. I still like the Thunder as the ATS pick and the over on the total.
Two of the top teams in the NBA this season will face off for the first time Sunday when the Oklahoma City Thunder (49-20) face the Milwaukee Bucks (45-25). The Thunder have won four in a row and are in a battle for the top seed in the Western Conference, while the Bucks have won three of their last four.
The Thunder are clean on the injury front. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton have both been listed as probable for Milwaukee.
The Bucks are 3-point favorites according to DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total coming in at 231.5. Milwaukee is -142 on the moneyline while Oklahoma City is +120.
Thunder vs. Bucks, 7 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Thunder +3
Oklahoma City has been one of the best teams against the spread this season at 40-28-1, while Milwaukee is 31-38-1 ATS. The Thunder have thrived in the underdog role, going 10-5-1 ATS overall as the underdog and 7-3-1 ATS as a road underdog. The Bucks are 26-31-1 ATS as favorites and 14-16-1 ATS as home favorites.
This is a rare instance of the Thunder being underdogs, as they’ve been betting favorites in every game since late January. Oklahoma City has only covered thrice in the last 10 games, while Milwaukee has covered six times in that span. However, I’ll back the Thunder as road underdogs in this one. Take OKC to cover.
Over/Under: Over 231.5
The Thunder trend to the over, going 36-30-3 on overs this season. The Bucks have settled in defensively, which has resulted in a correcting on their totals. They’re 34-35-1 to the over. Milwaukee has gone over its totals in the last three games, while the Thunder have hit the over in two of the last four. Both teams average more than 120 points per game this season, so I like the over in this game.