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WNBA championship odds: Liberty and Aces lead, but underdogs lurk

WNBA championship odds: Liberty and Aces lead, but underdogs lurk

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By: Grant Afseth

The WNBA is in the stretch run of the regular season with plenty of squads shaping up to do some postseason damage.

The leaders to win it all still remain the New York Liberty and defending-champion Las Vegas Aces. If the Aces manage to pull it off, they will join the Houston Comets as the only franchise to achieve a three-peat. Sometimes, a surprise contender emerges with enough clicking at the right time, so it’s important to consider the full landscape beyond the top.

Below is an in-depth look at the championship betting odds on DraftKings Sportsbook around the WNBA.


WNBA title favorites

New York Liberty

Odds: +155

With comfortably the most high-powered offense in the WNBA and a top-three defense anchored by Jonquel Jones, it’s easy to see why the New York Liberty have a league-best 25-4 record and are favorites to win the title. Motivated to avenge a failed trip to the Finals last year, Sabrina Ionescu and Breanna Stewart have averaged a combined 39.7 points per game. The pair of Olympic gold medalists have further solidified a dynamic one-two punch that no team wants to face. With a deep bench, there’s more than enough talent on this team to withstand adversity and pull off a title run.

Right now, this is the best team in the WNBA, it’s just a question of whether these odds are the right play with a limited payoff.

Las Vegas Aces

Odds: +180

The Las Vegas Aces’ defense has slipped compared to when this core was at peak performance, playing a key role in the group holding a 17-10 record and ranking fifth in the league standings. The Aces’ inconsistent regular season has transpired despite the team being led by MVP front-runner A’Ja Wilson, who is averaging an incredible 26.9 points, 11.9 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 2.7 blocks, and 2.0 steals through 27 games played. She boasts staggering -3500 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The bet here would be that led by such a talented superstar, the reigning WNBA champions will figure it out come while pulling off another successful run.

Underrated title contenders

Minnesota Lynx

Odds: +750

Entering Friday’s WNBA action, no team in the league produced a better defensive rating than the Minnesota Lynx at 94.1. However, despite Napheesa Collier averaging 20.4 points, there is still a clear level of separation offensively Minnesota faces when stacking up with the top offenses such as the Liberty and Aces. Regardless, Minnesota has shot a league-best 39.0% clip from deep on the season, with a 2.6% gap separating the group from the second-ranked Washington Mystics. It comes from an array of threats, including Kayla McBride, Bridget Carleton, and Alanna Smith all shooting comfortably over 40% from deep. Those three sharpshooters have shot a combined 42.7% on over 400 total attempts.

Despite that fact, a team as talented defensively as the Lynx could make for an intriguing choice as a dark-horse title contender, assuming they get hot shooting from beyond the arc around Collier while locking down defensively in the half court.

Connecticut Sun

Odds: +900

With the second-best regular season record in the WNBA at 20-7, the Connecticut Sun pose an intriguing choice when betting on title odds at +900. The team trails only the Aces and Lynx in net rating (8.2). The main question surrounding the Sun is clear: does this team have enough shooting firepower for the postseason? Connecticut is putting up 17.6 three-point attempts per game, ranking ahead of only the Chicago Sky.

The midseason trade addition of Marina Mabrey from the Sky was intended to provide more shooting, but one player can make only so much difference. Still, a talented roster with names like Alyssa Thomas, DeWanna Bonner, Brionna Jones, and DiJonai Carrington is worthy of legitimate respect as a threat.

Seattle Storm

Odds: +1400

Coming off an impressive silver medal run with France at the Paris Olympics, Gabby Williams has re-signed with the Seattle Storm and is ready to make an instant impact. There’s a lot of perimeter talent with Jewell Lloyd, Skylar Diggins-Smith, and Nneka Ogwumike. Ranked fourth in the league-standings, the Storm would hold home-court advantage early in the postseason.

The team has experienced significant success with Ezi Magbegor on the court at the center spot. There is more than enough talent on the squad to make Seattle a viable threat to pull off a surprise championship run.

The main drawback is just a good but not elite unit on offense or defense, unless the team can close out the season strongly enough to change that. It also doesn’t help that Seattle has shot 28.7% from deep on the season, which is comfortably the worst in the WNBA.

WNBA Title Longshots

Indiana Fever

Odds: +3500

Given how refreshed the Indiana Fever have looked coming out of the Olympic break after getting through a grueling schedule, they’ve developed into being a legitimate threat. Caitlin Clark continues to take her game to incredible heights, even as a player averaging 17.8 points and a league-leading 8.3 assists on the season. She’s quickly emerging as one of the most robust talents in the league coming out of this break, averaging 26.0 points and 9.5 assists.

There is a lot more to this squad than the superstar guard that sets the tone. Kelsey Mitchell is forming an incredible one-two punch with Clark, while Aliyah Boston continues to grow into being a dynamic complement in the middle. There’s enough there to ponder the Fever as being that rising young team that’s figuring it out at the right time with plenty of time left before the playoffs.

Phoenix Mercury

Odds: +3500

With veteran stars who once achieved multiple championship runs like Diana Taurasi and Brittney Griner, there is at least somewhat of a case to be made for the Phoenix Mercury. With Kahleah Copper averaging a team-high 23.1 points, there is an intriguing trio that when clicking, can be a headache for just about any opponent in the league. The team is a nightmare to handle in pick-and-roll with an elite post threat, while having various reliable spot-up threats with some motion shooting talent. However, a very poor transition offensive team with an underwhelming defense has limitations.

Age can be a double-edged sword in sports considering experience is an asset, but the increased injury concern must be weighed among potential risks. The last time this franchise was crowned champions was 2014, with the most recent run including a playoff series victory occurring in 2021 when Phoenix made it all the way to the Finals before losing to the Aces. A lot would have to go right for the Mercury to pull this off.


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is grant-afseth) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

More from: Grant Afseth:

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is grant-afseth) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.