The newest Baby Bombers got their big-league careers started in style on Friday night, as Jasson Dominguez launched a homer on his first MLB swing and the Yankees vanquished old nemesis Justin Verlander and the Astros in the series opener of this three-game set. New York (66-69) may be out of reach of a Wild Card spot, but they’ll look to play spoiler for Houston’s division title hopes once again on Saturday night, with first pitch from Minute Maid Park set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Luis Severino (4-8, 6.64 ERA) looks to build on his best start of the year last time out, while Houston turns to rookie righty Hunter Brown (10-9, 4.47).
The Astros are -192 moneyline favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Yankees are +160 underdogs. The total is set at 8.5.
Yankees-Astros picks: Saturday, September 2
Injury report
Yankees
Out: 1B Anthony Rizzo (concussion), OF Billy McKinney (left lower back spasm), SP Nestor Cortes (left rotator cuff strain)
Astros
Day-to-day: 2B Jose Altuve (leg contusion), RP Kendall Graveman (lower back discomfort)
Out: INF Grae Kessinger (health and safety protocols)
Starting pitchers
Luis Severino vs. Hunter Brown
Good for Severino for coming through with two solid outings after his nightmarish start to this season (7.98 ERA through his first 14 appearances), but he’ll need a lot more than that to convince everyone — much less the Yankees front office — that the pending free agent is back to his old self. For starters, Sevy faced the Nationals and Tigers in those two starts, and he only struck out two Nats batters in 6.2 innings while getting more than his fair share of batted-ball luck. He did earn 12 whiffs on his fastball in Detroit, though, and that’s a pretty good place to start.
Brown’s seesaw rookie season continues, as the righty followed up six runs in just 2.2 innings against the Mariners nine Ks over five innings of two-run ball against the Tigers earlier this week. When he’s at his best, he looks like a young Lance McCullers Jr., keeping his fastball elevated while allowing his slider and curveball to shine. Those breakers have failed him all too often this season, getting hit hard when left in the zone (14th percentile in barrel rate, 15th in hard-hit rate). He did put up a quality start against these Yankees at the beginning of August, though.
Over/Under pick
I expect Brown to pitch pretty well in this spot — New York has been dreadful of late against righty pitching, even with Aaron Judge back in the fold — but taking the under is still a very iffy proposition whenever Severino is involved. The righty has given up four or more runs in 10 of his 14 starts since the beginning of June, and now he has to go up against Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker and the rest of an Astros offense that’s been a top-five unit against righties since August 1.
Pick: Over 8.5
Moneyline pick
Don’t overthink this one after Friday’s result: Houston still has much more to play for, with a deeper lineup and the better starter on the mound. Even if Severino manages to keep this recent trend going, there’s not much to suggest New York can give him much run support against Brown.
Pick: Astros -192