It’s Friday. There’s a bunch of baseball on tonight. What more do I really even need to say to get you excited for this 13-game MLB slate?
Let’s dive in and find some studs and values.
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PITCHER
Stud
Robbie Ray, San Francisco Giants vs. Detroit Tigers, $8,600 – If it feels like I’m picking on the Tigers a lot lately, it’s because I am. Detroit has been unable to score runs in recent weeks, entering Friday’s action with a .211 average and a 71 wRC+ across the past 14 days. However, this pick is just as much about Ray. The former AL Cy Young award winner has looked great since returning from the IL, posting a 3.69 xERA over his first three starts with the Giants. Better than that? Ray’s managed a 35.6% strikeout rate and a 17.3% swinging strike rate. It’s a small sample size, but those figures scream DFS upside.
Value
Louie Varland, Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians, $6,700 – Full disclosure: I’m a sucker for Varland’s raw stuff. Any starter that can touch 100 mph has to be worth paying attention to, right? Even if Varland’s downfall has always been opponent barrels and home runs — which is a massive red flag. The RHP has been in good form down in Triple-A, where he’s posted a 1.48 ERA and 28.0% strikeout rate over his last six outings. It’s also not like the Guardians have been tearing the cover off the baseball lately. Across the past 30 days, Cleveland ranks 28th in the league in both wOBA (.286) and wRC+ (86). Take a chance on Varland.
INFIELD
Stud
Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies, $5,500 – Riley is yet another elite bat that got off to a terribly slow start to 2024. However, things have been a lot better since the calendar flipped to June. In his last 58 games and 242 plate appearances, Riley is slashing .295/.360/.567 with 14 home runs and a 153 wRC+. He’ll get a chance to add to those numbers on Friday night in a tantalizing matchup with Tanner Gordon ($5,200). The rookie RHP has struggled in his brief time in the majors, especially with right-handed opponents, as RHBs have managed a ridiculous .531 wOBA off the 26-year-old.
Stud
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays vs. Oakland Athletics, $5,200 – It’s hilarious that you can still get Guerrero into your lineups at a price so close to $5K. Following three more extra-base hits on Thursday, Vlad Jr. is now slashing .500/.573/1.074 with a 341 wRC+ since the All-Star break. He’s currently riding a league-best 20-game hit streak. It’s not like this is total recency bias, either. Dating back to May 1, Guerrero is batting .355 with a 1.046 OPS. He’s on another level at the moment. The presence of Mitch Spence ($5,800) helps his viability, too. Spence is allowing 1.82 opponent home runs per nine on the road in 2024.
Value
Gavin Lux, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates, $3,400 – Lux has also been on fire since the All-Star break, hitting .404 with a 225 wRC+ in his 62 plate appearances. It would appear that the former top prospect is finally fully recovered from his knee injury, and not a moment too soon for a Dodgers’ team that craves production from the lower-half of its lineup. Mitch Keller ($9,000) isn’t what I would call an enticing matchup, yet Lux is so cheap that he has to be considered.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Marcell Ozuna, Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies, $6,000 – You only get three chances a season to use Ozuna at altitude. You might as well take advantage. The veteran slugger enters play on Friday with 36.4 expected home runs to his name — the most of any hitter in the National League. Now he’ll get to face the aforementioned Gordon at Coors Field? Sign me up. Gordon’s faced 48 RHBs this season with Colorado. They are mashing 4.82 home runs per nine. Woof.
Stud
Heliot Ramos, San Francisco Giants vs. Detroit Tigers, $4,800 – It’s not 100% clear who is going to be starting tonight’s game for the Tigers, but it at least seems like Brant Hurter ($6,500) is going to pitch the bulk of the innings. If the lefty did start, it would be his first at the MLB level. It would also be great news for Ramos. No one hits lefties like Ramos — not even Aaron Judge. To wit, among the 226 players with at least 75 plate appearances against LHPs in 2024, Ramos leads the way with an eye-popping .496 expected wOBA within the split.
Value
Lawrence Butler, Oakland Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays, $3,800 – Butler’s bat has cooled off slightly after a month of July that put him on the fantasy map; however, a matchup with Jose Berrios ($7,800) might be just the thing to get the outfielder back on track. Berrios has been dreadful the past two months, pitching to a 6.02 ERA across his last 10 starts. It’s a span where the RHP is conceding 2.28 opponent home runs per nine.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $250K Rally Cap [$50K to 1st]
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
