The PGA heads to Memphis for the FedEx St. Jude Championship this week, the first leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. The event is played at TPC Southwind, a medium-length par 70 that features smaller greens, tight fairways, and plenty of water. This is an event where players can make a lot of birdies as the course isn’t overly long and elite ball-striking will be rewarded. However, big numbers do lurk on almost every hole at Southwind — there were 59 double bogies or worse recorded for the week in 2023 — making it a high-variance venue.
From a scoring perspective, six holes played over par at Southwind last season but only four of them saw players record more bogies than birdies for the week. In this sense, as long as the weather is OK, looking to some overs in the birdie or better category makes sense, especially for players trending well in strokes gained Approach and Birdie or Better %.
As of writing, Thursday looks like it will be hot (95F) but also will have low winds, with gusts topping out around 7-8mph. With it being the first day I’d expect scoring conditions to be half-decent which again has me leaning towards being bullish on scoring expectations.
With all that in mind, let’s dive in and see what I’m looking at for DraftKings Pick6 for Round 1 of the FedEx St. Jude Classic.
Pick 1: Sahith Theegala Less Than 68.5 Strokes
I like Theegala’s chances this week and don’t mind the idea of targeting him for a good start in Pick6 lineups. The American put in four under-par rounds in his last stop at the very water-logged TPC Twin Cities venue and has handled these more technical tracks about as well as anyone this season, posting top-10 finishes in Phoenix, Harbour Town, and in Scotland. Overall, Theegala’s been very good in two of his last three starts and is gaining plenty of strokes off the tee, ranking 15th in SG: OTT over the last 24 rounds. Even if his driver fails him Thursday, he’s been putting well and seems due for some positive regression with his irons soon. This number also has him sitting a full stroke over the top three players in the field (McIlroy, Scheffler, and Schauffele) which feels slightly big given how well he’s played this year.
Pick 2: Tom Kim More Than 4.5 Birdies
Kim was one of my main targets in the DFS Cheat Sheet this week on DK Nation and one of the main reasons why, was due to how many chances Kim is giving himself to make birdies, per round. Over the last 24 rounds of play, Kim ranks sixth in Opportunities Gained over the last 24 rounds and 10th in Birdie or Better %. He’s also shot 66 or better at TPC Southwind three times over his last two visits and opened with a 64 at this venue last season. The South Korean sets up well for the course and has played well all summer, grabbing two top 5 finishes in June (Canada and the Travelers) and a T8 finish in Paris two weeks ago. With decent enough conditions on tap for Thursday, I would like to target Kim to go for more than his current 4.5 birdie total in Round 1 and look to potentially play him in this category for multiple rounds this week.
Pick 3: Russell Henley More Than 11.5 Pars
Henley has played some great golf this season but a lot of his success has come from an improved short game and solid ball striking that keeps him out of trouble most weeks. Where the American has been lacking this season is in his birdie-making. He comes in ranked just 30th in Birdie or Better chances over the last 24 rounds but is also 8th in bogey avoidance. In short, Henley is hitting it well enough to keep himself well out of the worst trouble but isn’t converting on the greens at a very high rate. The result? A lot of rounds where he makes a lot of pars, which isn’t a terrible thing, especially on a course like Southwind where avoiding trouble is more than half the battle. For Round 1, targeting him to go for more than 11.5 pars in Round 1 is one of my favorite plays on the slate.
Pick 4: Sungjae Im More Than 4.5 Birdies
Just like his countryman, Tom Kim, Im isn’t having trouble making birdies. The South Korean ranks first in this field in birdie or better percentage over the last 24 rounds and posted five or more birdies in three of his four rounds at the Wyndham last week — despite finishing just T41. While Im’s overall upside and ability to avoid bigger numbers was hampered last week by poor iron play, by taking him to go for more than 4.5 birdies (rather than playing him in the total strokes market), we don’t have to worry about his overall score, or whether he makes a double bogey or two in the opener. Im has also posted some low numbers around Southwind the last two seasons, shooting 63 in 2022 and 65 in Round 2 at this event last season making this play even more appealing.
What is DraftKings Pick6?
Pick6 is a peer-to-peer fantasy variant where you build a lineup (your “Pick Set”) of 2 to 6 players and select whether or not you believe each will outperform their listed stat projection. Enter your Pick Set in Pick6 contests to compete against other users. Get enough picks correct and win a share of cash prizes.
How to Play DraftKings Pick6
Create a Pick Set
Create a Pick Set by choosing between 2-6 players from the same sport and Pick Group (a set of picks available from a group of set competitions). For each player, simply select if you think they’ll have more or less than their listed stat projection. In each Pick Set, you can not pick the same player twice and you must pick players from at least two different teams.
Enter an Amount
Once you finalize your Pick Set, choose your entry fee amount. Your entries will be automatically distributed into available contests, subject to your confirmation.
Sweat Your Picks
When the games go live, use the My Picks tab to follow your picks in real time to track how your players are performing against their projections and how they stack up against other users.
Compete for Prizes
Make enough correct picks and win a share of the contests’ guaranteed prizes. Any prizes won will be credited to your DraftKings account after contests are finalized.
Play at DraftKings Pick6 or by downloading the DraftKings Pick6 app on Apple or Google!
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
