Thursday features a small MLB slate that has a lot of weather question marks. Those factors lead us to Los Angeles, where Ryan Feltner is on the bump for the Rockies opposite Carson Fulmer.
Fulmer has worked his way into the Angels’ rotation after working as a reliever all season. He threw 4 2/3 scoreless innings in his first start of 2024 on July 14, then gave up six runs over 10 1/3 frames.
As for Feltner, he’s got decent numbers for someone who calls Coors Field home. His ERA sits at 4.99, but a 4.19 FIP indicates he’s due for better days. More importantly for Feltner, he’s got a 4.19 ERA and 4.04 FIP on the road, as opposed to a 6.14 ERA and 4.38 FIP in Denver.
Here’s a look at more of their home-road splits via their individual player pages in the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub:
A number that jumps out with Fulmer is his 26.1% strikeout rate at home. He has 55 strikeouts over 57 1/3 innings this year. Although he only has six Ks over his last 10 1/3, Fulmer posted seven punchouts in his first start of the season — which, again, only lasted 4 2/3 frames.
Looking at what the Rockies bring to the table, they have one of the higher road strikeout rates against right-handed pitching at 26.6%. Throughout their 13 road games in July, that number bumped up to 27.9%. So, I’m riding with Fulmer over 5.5 strikeouts at +125.
As for the hitters in this game, here’s a look at how some of them have performed over their last five games against their hits line for Thursday’s matchup via the Consistency Sheets in the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub:
“Reverse splits” usually applies to a hitter or pitcher being better against an opponent of the same hand. In Ezequiel Tovar’s case, he’s got reverse locational splits.
Despite the advantage Coors provides hitters, the Rockies shortstop has a superior average, wOBA, ISO and OPS on the road this season. On top of that, he’s also been a bit more effective against right-handed pitchers. Tovar enters Thursday with a .301 average, .813 OPS, .346 wOBA and .196 ISO against righties. The only category in which he’s better against lefties is ISO (.215).
Looking at his options on DraftKings Sportsbook, the over on his hits+runs+RBIs play jumps out with -105 odds. His line of 1.5 is a mark he’s managed to get over in 13 of his last 17 games.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
