We have a big weekend coming up in men’s college basketball as the regular season begins to wind down. With Selection Sunday taking place in just over a month, there are a handful of notable teams across the country who currently find themselves on the NCAA Tournament bubble.
Below, we’ll take a look at some of these programs and what they could do to bump up their resumes over the next few weeks.
Gonzaga – 19-6, 9-2 WCC (23 NET, 18 KenPom)
Quad 1: 1-5
Quad 2: 2-1
Quad 3: 5-0
Quad 4: 10-0
Under normal circumstances, the above metrics would suggest that Gonzaga is having a pretty good season. But by the lofty standards that has been established in Spokane under Mark Few, this is absolutely a “down” year and the Bulldogs could miss the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1998.
Gonzaga’s resume is what’s putting into bubble territory as it just picked up its first Quad 1 win of the season in last Saturday’s victory over Kentucky. The Zags have mostly handled business in West Coast Conference play, but have found themselves looking up at first-place Saint Mary’s all season long. It will be crucial for Few’s group to end the regular season with victories over San Francisco and Saint Mary’s to juice up their resume a bit. Otherwise, they are going to have to outright win the WCC tourney to make it to the big dance.
Memphis – 18-7, 7-5 AAC (81 NET, 82 KenPom)
Quad 1: 3-3
Quad 2: 2-2
Quad 3: 7-1
Quad 4: 6-1
With Houston moving on to the Big 12, this theoretically supposed to be a year where Memphis finally flexed its muscles in the American. Instead, the Tigers have underachieved. The Tigers experienced a four-game losing streak at the end of January, a stretch that was capped with a brutal Quad 4 loss to Rice on January 31. They had seemingly righted the ship with a three-game win streak before suffering a 76-66 road setback at North Texas on Thursday.
They could still boost their resume with two games against FAU and a game against SMU down the stretch, but it’s looking like Penny Hardaway’s bunch will have to win the AAC tourney to make it to the big dance this year.
Villanova – 13-11, 6-7 Big East (38 NET, 34 KenPom)
Quad 1: 3-6
Quad 2: 5-2
Quad 3: 1-3
Quad 4: 4-0
The post-Jay Wright era has been bumpy for Villanova and it is in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament for a second straight year. The Wildcats have been good from a metrics standpoint but they’ve struggled to keep their heads above water in a tough Big East, losing five straight games at one point.
With seven games left in conference, there’s still some time to pick up some quality wins and pray that their strength of schedule will be enough to get them into the field of 68. But it’s not looking good for Nova at the moment and several bracketologists Kyle Neptune’s squad on the outside looking in.
Providence – 16-9, 7-2 Big East (57 NET, 53 KenPom)
Quad 1: 4-6
Quad 2: 3-3
Quad 3: 0-0
Quad 4: 9-0
Providence is the personification of a bubble team at this juncture of the year and what it does down the stretch will determine which side of the NCAA Tournament line it will fall. The Friars have been up and down throughout Big East play, owning signature victories over Marquette and Creighton, but also experiencing a four-game losing streak in early January.
Xavier, Marquette, Villanova, and UConn are the quality opponents still left on their regular season slate. Split those games and they could be in good shape heading into Madison Square Garden for the Big East Tournament. Fail to split those games and suddenly things could be a bit tense for the Friars in NYC.
St. John’s – 14-11, 6-8 Big East (46 NET, 40 KenPom)
Quad 1: 2-9
Quad 2: 5-1
Quad 3: 2-1
Quad 4: 5-0
Rounding out this cluster of Big East bubble teams is St. John’s, who is trying to make the big dance in its first year under the guidance of Rick Pitino. Metrically, the Red Storm are ahead of where they were a year ago, but they have struggled when facing elite competition this season.
Creighton is the toughest opponent the Johnnies will face down the stretch and they fell by just one point when the two teams previously met on January 13. If they can go on a tear in their last six games and win a few games in the Big East tournament, they should be able to earn their way into the NCAA Tournament.
Wake Forest – 16-8, 8-5 ACC (36 NET, 27 KenPom)
Quad 1: 0-4
Quad 2: 5-4
Quad 3: 5-0
Quad 4: 6-0
This is another down year across the board in the ACC and Wake Forest is right on the bubble heading into the final stretch of the regular season. The Demon Deacons have mostly been fine in conference play, but the fact that they don’t have a single Quad 1 victory on their resume is glaring. They once again stumbled against one of the nation’s elite when falling at Duke earlier in the week.
Games against Virginia, Duke, and Clemson are the best games left on their schedule and they could make a better impression on the selection committee by taking at least two of those. If not, then the Deacs will most likely have to outright win the ACC Tournament in Washington D.C. to make the NCAA’s for the first time since 2017.