Happy Trade Deadline Day! Today, more than ever, you’ll need to pay close attention to the news before placing your bets. The deadline is at 6 p.m. ET, which is about an hour before the slate of games begins. Keep an eye on the news and act accordingly. Now, I’ll give you some of my favorite plays you can tail on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Follow me on Twitter for daily MLB picks and info @SBuchanan24.
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners
The Pick: Red Sox team total over 4.5 runs -115
At first glance, a matchup against Luis Castillo isn’t one you’d look to target. His numbers, on the surface, look solid with a 3.38 ERA, a 3.86 xERA and a 3.64 FIP. Overall, he’s been great, even with a decline in his strikeout numbers. However, his big problem this season has been left-handed bats, as they’ve tagged him for a .346 wOBA, 10 of the 15 home runs he’s allowed and a 5.06 FIP. The Red Sox are VERY left-handed heavy and should have six of them in the lineup tonight, including five of the first six in their lineup. Not only that, they’re a very good hitting club against the fastball, which Castillo is throwing 42% of the time. The Sox lineup has a combined .384 wOBA with a .255 ISO and a 12.1 BB% against that pitch. The Mariners bullpen has also been sluggish since the All-Star break, posting a 4.70 ERA through 30.2 innings.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals
The Pick: Game Total over 9 runs -115
We should see plenty of offense tonight between these two teams. Patrick Corbin will oppose Ryne Nelson in Arizona, where I think the ball will be flying. Nelson has some really bad numbers at home, where he sports a 6.21 ERA with a .369 wOBA. He’s a very heavy fastball pitcher, throwing it 62% of the time. The Nationals have done well against that pitch with tonight’s expected lineup owning a .364 wOBA with a .196 ISO. On the other side of the ball, the Diamondbacks get their second crack at Corbin. The first time he pitched against them, he did quite well! Corbin had this small stretch where he was pitching efficiently, but that phase came and went quickly. Corbin has now allowed at least three runs in five of his last six games. This D-Backs club is starting to turn it around offensively and has a combined .333 wOBA with a .146 ISO against lefties.
Texas Rangers at St. Louis Cardinals
The Pick: Josh Smith over 1.5 H/R/RBI -120
The Rangers leadoff hitter is in a great spot against Cardinals starter Lance Lynn. Against lefties, Lynn has posted some really poor numbers, as evidenced by his .358 wOBA, a 5.38 FIP and nine of the 14 home runs he’s allowed. Lynn is also uses the fastball heavily, throwing it 61% of the time. Smith has really strong numbers against that, with a .407 wOBA and a .225 ISO. With the lefty Corey Seager hitting right below him, I think Smith has a really strong chance of going over his 1.5 H/R/RBI prop.
Follow me on Twitter for daily MLB picks and info @SBuchanan24
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
