It’s going to be a busy week in baseball, as the MLB’s trade deadline is just over 24 hours away. However, our focus tonight is simply the action on the diamond — not in the boardroom. There are thousands of betting options for this evening’s slate on the DraftKings Sportsbook, so allow me to narrow things down to my two favorite wagers.
Let’s break down everything you need to know.
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles (Game 2)
Orioles -1.5 (+130)
I’m going to focus on Game 2 of today’s doubleheader, but feel free to back the Orioles this afternoon, as well. The reason? I think the Jays are at a decided disadvantage when it comes to covering innings with the current state of their bullpen. That flaw should be more apparent in the second contest of the day than in Game 1. Heck, it’s not even like Toronto’s bullpen was a strength before the team dealt away Yimi Garcia and Nate Pearson this past weekend. The Blue Jays relievers own the league’s highest FIP (4.93) and second-highest ERA (4.98) trailing only the Rockies — who have to pitch half their games at Coors Field. It’s a bad unit and it’ll be asked to pitch a lot on Monday.
The starting pitching matchup for Game 2 is also an advantage for the Orioles. Both teams will send a Triple-A starter with some MLB experience to the mound. Toronto will go with Bowden Francis, while Baltimore counters with Cade Povich. Neither pitched well in the majors in 2024, yet Francis’ numbers as a starter were particularly bad, with the 28-year-old surrendering 12 earned runs in his 12.1 innings from back in April. Povich is at least left-handed and will possess a distinct platoon edge over a Blue Jays lineup that has struggled to do much with southpaws all season long. To wit, Toronto ranks 25th in wRC+ (87) and 28th in ISO (.111) within the split. If Povich can cobble together a quality outing, the Orioles’ bats should provide enough to make this tilt pretty lopsided.
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New York Yankees at Philadelphia Phillies
Under 9 (-115)
While it’s true that offense around the league has improved as the weather’s warmed, this still feels like a very high total for a contest with an elite pitching matchup. Let’s start with Zack Wheeler, who might currently be having the best season of his career — which is saying something. Over 20 starts and 123.2 innings, Wheeler sports a 2.55 ERA and a 2.94 xERA. In fact, that 2.55 ERA is the lowest mark among all National League qualified pitchers, while Wheeler is one of just six qualified pitchers in all of baseball with an expected ERA below 3.00. Wheeler also owns a 1.77 ERA when taking the mound in Philadelphia in 2024, a place where he’s allowed more than two earned runs in only one of his 10 outings. Again, this is Zack Wheeler. None of this should come as a shock. He’s been one of the best arms in MLB for a half-decade.
You can’t say the same about Luis Gil, though that’s about as long as people have been dreaming on the RHP’s massive potential. Gil is finally starting to live up to the hype this season. In 107.1 innings, the flame-throwing 26-year-old has maintained a 3.10 ERA and a 3.28 xERA with a 28.2% strikeout rate. Gil was almost untouchable to begin 2024, then he hit a three-start speed bump in late June, conceding 16 earned runs across 9.2 innings of work. However, in his three outings since that hiccup, Gil has been masterful, managing a 1.53 ERA and a 1.90 FIP in matchups with the Red Sox, Orioles and Mets. When he’s on, he’s simply one of the most talented starters in MLB.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
