Memphis has already beaten Iowa State and VCU, lost two of its leading scorers to injuries during a 105-81 beating at Vanderbilt, and now gets Louisville at FedExForum while its starting big serves an NCAA suspension. Four games into November, Penny Hardaway has plenty to sort through. Pat Kelsey arrives with a renovated roster of his own, although Chattanooga and Morehead State have allowed the Cardinals a considerably gentler introduction. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college basketball game between the Memphis Tigers and the Louisville Cardinals.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Memphis vs. Louisville prediction, preview
What Louisville did to Morehead deserves a closer look than the 50-point margin. The Cardinals grabbed 20 offensive rebounds and scored 28 second-chance points; Obinna Ekezie Jr., all 7-foot-2 of him, came off the bench for 20 points and 13 rebounds, including three made threes. Put that shooting next to Flory Bidunga, the reigning Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year, and Memphis has two rather different problems to solve with Nemanja Popovic unavailable. Maxim Logue and Corneilous Williams have to contest the first shot and still find somebody to box out. Through three games, Memphis has collected just 66.3% of available defensive rebounds.
Louisville has launched 53.3% of its field-goal attempts from three, so an erratic afternoon from deep belongs in any assessment of this favorite. Jackson Shelstad has opened 5-for-20, the team 22-for-73. Inside the arc, though, the Cardinals have made 45 of 64 attempts (70.3%), and their 38 offensive rebounds across two games have prolonged possessions when the jumpers miss. Those opponents matter; carrying that percentage into Memphis would be quite an assumption. The relevant matchup is a defense that has already conceded 55.6% on twos and 58.9% eFG% against substantially better competition.
Louisville vs. Memphis pick, best bet
Hardaway can attack the other end by making Louisville defend without fouling. Memphis has attempted 105 free throws against 172 field-goal attempts, a 61.0% free-throw rate, and Jayden Reid earned 23 trips to the line while scoring 58 points in the opening two wins. His left ankle makes that approach harder to project. Reid returned after hurting it at Vanderbilt; Luke Almodovar left following a hard fall. Both remain availability concerns, with Almodovar reported as a game-time decision because of a head injury. Being cleared would still leave the question of how freely Reid can change direction.
A healthy Reid would make the eight-and-a-half considerably less comfortable. He has 12 assists against five turnovers, while Rihards Vavers has buried eight of 15 threes; Memphis can punish a defense that crowds the ball and forgets the next pass. I still favor Louisville’s bigs to decide enough possessions around the basket to separate late. Kelsey can replace Bidunga with Ekezie without surrendering size, and Memphis has been chasing misses even before confronting this frontcourt. Louisville’s 64.8% at the line makes a narrow late lead dangerous for the cover, so I’m stopping at -8.5 rather than chasing a bigger number.
Best bet: Louisville -8.5 (-112)
Projected score: Louisville 87, Memphis 77.
