New England flew to Munich Wednesday night with another offensive line to assemble and a habit of handing opponents the ball. Drake Maye has thrown 18 touchdowns and a league-leading 11 interceptions, while New England has committed 19 turnovers. Detroit has won four straight, most recently squeezing Miami out of the end zone in a 19–9 victory. Maye can certainly make this livelier, especially against a secondary missing cornerback D.J. Reed and safety Kerby Joseph. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the Detroit Lions and the New England Patriots.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Lions vs. Patriots prediction, preview
With receiver A.J. Brown questionable, Maye can attack those replacements through receiver DeMario Douglas and tight end Hunter Henry, who carries no game designation. Detroit plays man coverage on 37.6% of snaps; Minnesota recently pulled those defenders apart with bunch formations and attacked the seams with its tight ends. Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels can borrow from that approach while moving Maye away from pressure. New England has completed 33 passes of at least 20 yards, third-most in the league. Henry can stretch those seams while Maye escapes defenders who turn their backs to chase receivers.
The harder work begins beside Patriots center Jared Wilson. Greg Van Roten returned from injured reserve Saturday and is expected to replace injured Ben Brown at left guard, with Matt Pryor on the right. New England is heading toward its sixth starting line combination in ten games. Running back TreVeyon Henderson went onto IR, and Rhamondre Stevenson remains questionable. The Patriots declined to elevate another back, an encouraging sign for Stevenson’s availability, though his knee could still restrict his carries. McDaniels has struggled to marry the handoffs with play-action all season (minus-0.36 EPA per play-action attempt, 31st).
Patriots vs. Lions pick, best bet
Jared Goff has his own coverage problem to untangle. Against quarters, he has averaged 5.8 yards per attempt and minus-0.12 EPA/dropback; against other coverages, he climbs to 8.5 and plus-0.25. Patriots coach Mike Vrabel can crowd the intermediate passing lanes with those split safeties. Goff has failed to reach 200 passing yards in consecutive games, and losing center Cade Mays complicates the protection. Amon-Ra St. Brown is questionable with a rib injury, too, leaving Goff waiting on his busiest target.
Jahmyr Gibbs can punish New England for devoting so many defenders to those passing lanes. Gibbs has averaged 105.9 rushing yards per game, while Detroit leads the NFL in explosive-run rate at 14.3%. New England has defended the run well, but its secondary has surrendered 32 completions of at least 20 yards and now loses cornerback Carlton Davis III. Goff can reach receiver Jameson Williams behind a defense preoccupied with Gibbs. I expect Maye to answer with explosive completions of his own; Detroit’s healthier backfield and New England’s repeated protection changes should decide the late possessions.
Best bet: Lions -2.5 (-118)
Projected score: Lions 27, Patriots 23.
