The college football season approaches the home stretch this week with a number of notable matchups across the Power 4 and Group of 6 ranks. The Big 12 plays host to one of the most consequential games on the slate, as we’ll see the Texas Tech Red Raiders take on the Oklahoma State Cowboys in Stillwater.
Texas Tech enters this game fresh off a very tight victory over West Virginia, while Oklahoma State put up 66 points on Kansas State in an emphatic blowout victory. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for Saturday’s college football game between Texas Tech and Oklahoma State.
Oklahoma State is a 3.5-point favorite for this matchup with the total listed at 73.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s dig into the odds and my best bet on Saturday’s matchup, and don’t miss our complete coverage of all of the Week 11 college football action at DraftKings Network.
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Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State Prediction
Much like most games involving Oklahoma State this season, we should see a vintage Big 12 contest filled with plenty of points and explosive plays throughout. The Cowboys are 7-2 to the over this season, clearing the total by an average of 11.5 points per game. Texas Tech games have also tended to be higher-scoring, with the Red Raiders currently sitting at 7-2 to the over as well. With that in mind, it’s certainly understandable why the total for this game is set at a whopping 73.5 points.
Since its loss to Tulsa in the season opener, Oklahoma State’s offense has been the best unit in the nation when adjusting for strength of schedule and opponent. Drew Mestemaker is playing at an elite level, and it’s no surprise that he’s generated a ton of buzz as it relates to his prospects at the next level. The former North Texas quarterback has thrown for nearly 3,000 yards and recorded 32 total touchdowns on the season, and I see no sign of that production slowing down this week against a Texas Tech defense that is outside the top 80 in passing success rate allowed and yards per pass allowed.
Not only is the Texas Tech defense nowhere close to what it was a season ago, the Red Raiders have been a mess on that side of the ball in Big 12 play. Once they’ve had to step up in class, things haven’t gone well for Shiel Wood’s unit. The Red Raiders just surrendered an average of 37 points over their last three conference games, and two of those matchups came against offenses that are nowhere near as efficient or explosive as Oklahoma State. The Cowboys should give Mestemaker time against this mediocre Texas Tech edge rush, and the Red Raiders secondary has been prone to some horrific coverage busts and breakdowns of late.
Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State Best Bet
There should be a ton of possessions in this game, which immediately points me in the direction of an over. However, instead of focusing on the full-game total, I’d prefer to isolate the best unit in this game, which is clearly the Oklahoma State offense. The Cowboys have exceeded their team total in all six of their Big 12 games this season, so I’ll bank on that trend to continue against an overmatched Texas Tech defense on Saturday.