Hawaii quarterback Micah Alejado spent the final minutes at UTEP finding Titan Lacaden exactly where the Warriors needed him. Two third-down completions helped exhaust the clock after Hawaii had marched 98 yards for its final touchdown. The 17–14 win still burned our -7.5 ticket. Against North Dakota State, I’m buying a touchdown rather than requiring Alejado to win by more than one. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors and the North Dakota State Bison.
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Hawaii vs. NDST prediction, preview
Alejado will have to sustain that accuracy against a defense allowing just 4.4 yards per play. North Dakota State has conceded seven red-zone touchdowns all season; Hawaii has scored touchdowns on 16 of 34 trips, with six coming against Northern Illinois. Those figures explain why consecutive 300-yard passing performances from Alejado can coexist with such modest scoring expectations. Lacaden’s 11 catches for 109 yards at UTEP established another outlet, although converting third downs against the Bison should prove considerably harder.
Wind threatens an offense that throws on 62.2% of its plays. Forecast gusts above 25 mph could complicate Alejado’s throws and Hawaii’s attempts to salvage stalled drives with field goals. Receiver Pofele Ashlock was ruled out on the initial conference availability report, with Audric Harris questionable. I’m expecting Hawaii to labor for its touchdowns, particularly against a defense that has allowed more than 21 points only once.
North Dakota State’s offense has also made separation difficult. The Bison haven’t averaged 5.0 YPC in any game this season, including meetings with Fordham, Sacramento State and UTEP. Against the Miners, their 31–7 victory remained 17–7 late in the fourth quarter before Marion Moore returned a fumble for a touchdown and another interception preceded the final score. Nathan Hayes did throw for 240 yards, with Jackson Williams catching ten passes and tight end Reis Kessel producing 85 yards. Hawaii must tackle those receivers after the catch rather than depend on another sluggish Bison rushing performance.
NDST vs. Hawaii pick, best bet
The Warriors have surrendered 4.9 YPC, and defensive linemen Luther McCoy and Ha’aheo Dela Cruz were also listed out, leaving them vulnerable to precisely the kind of repeated handoffs North Dakota State prefers. That matchup stops me from taking Hawaii outright. Hayes can use his backs to shorten third downs, then find Kessel near the goal line; the tight end has four touchdown receptions.
North Dakota State had a bye to prepare, but its charter suffered a 13-hour mechanical delay, pushing arrival to approximately 5 a.m. Friday. Lost acclimation time adds uncertainty to a quarterback already carrying eight interceptions into the trip. I’d still favor the Bison to win through their defense. At seven, Hawaii can absorb several unsuccessful possessions and remain within the number, provided Alejado protects the ball and reproduces a few of those extended drives.
Best bet: Hawaii +7 (-112)
Projected score: North Dakota State 21, Hawaii 17.
Best Bet: Hawaii +7 (-110) vs. NDST
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