Friday is an NBA Cup night. bringing colorful courts and some additional stakes to the hoops slate. As the group stage continues, the Houston Rockets welcome a banged-up Utah Jazz roster to the Toyota Center for what should be a perfectly winnable matchup. Now, the home team just has to execute at the level they’re proving to be capable of.
Read on for a full preview, prediction and pick for Friday’s Jazz vs. Rockets matchup, courtesy of odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Jazz vs. Rockets prediction, preview
After dropping a pair of games, the Rockets have now won back-to-back outings and seem to be right back on track. They’re 9-3 and have a +9.2 NETRTG that ranks fourth in the NBA despite facing one of the toughest schedules of any team thus far. The signs have been pointing toward this group being a true playoff contender, which puts them at a clear advantage tonight.
Houston is playing great basketball on both ends of the floor. The club averages 115.4 PPG, 12th in the league, but ranks fifth in OFFRTG thanks to standout efficiency. The Rockets have a 47.8% FG% and a 37.4% 3P%, both of which are top-seven marks around the Association. They’ve gotten excellent contributions from a variety of names headlined by Alperen Sengun, who leads the team in all three major categories with 21.1 points, 9.4 rebounds and 7.9 assists per game. Kevin Durant averages 20.9 PPG and is the other primary option. While Amen Thompson’s production has ticked down slightly to 15.3 points and 6.8 boards, Jabari Smith Jr. appears to be in the midst of a breakout with 16.8 points and 6.6 rebounds on a career-best 42.1% 3P%. Fred VanVleet’s contributions as the floor general stand out with 13.7 points and 5.6 assists, too.
Defensively, the Rockets are limiting opponents to just 106.5 PPG, fourth fewest of any team, and their DEFRTG sits seventh. They’ve been mostly average on the glass with 44.2 rebounds a game, 14th, but it doesn’t help that centers Steven Adams and Clint Capela have both been sidelined for a while. Both the backup big men remain out tonight, as does Marcus Smart while he serves a three-game suspension.
The Jazz were expected to take a step forward this season with the addition of Jaren Jackson Jr. and Darryn Peterson into their lineup, which was supposed to be competing for a postseason spot. However, injuries have already left key pieces sidelined and they’re only 1-11, which is obviously already a huge hole to dig themselves out of. With a -11.3 NETRTG that ranks 26th, the outlook is growing more dire by the game with their stars out.
Jackson Jr. and Lauri Markkanen are both still out while the former rehabs an MCL tear and the latter heals from a hand fracture; Jusuf Nurkic also is yet to make his season debut and remains out as well. As such, this frontcourt is decimated, and it shows. Utah averages only 106.6 PPG and is 29th in OFFRTG, allowing 118.1 PPG with the No. 24 DEFRTG on the other end. The Jazz are 28th in FG% at just 43.3% and 27th in 3P% at 32.7%. Much like last season, turnovers are a real problem at 25th across the league, averaging 17.0 per game. They’re eighth in rebounds (44.8) and third in blocks (6.3), but that hasn’t helped them play competitive basketball.
The club is without one of its best scorers and an All-Defense big man, leaving other pieces of the young roster to step up. Keyonte George leads the way with 20.4 points and 6.5 assists per game, with the rookie Peterson posting 16.3 points with 4.0 rebounds and 3.9 assists. Ace Bailey pitches in 13.3 points and 6.7 rebounds, but the Jazz are without any other double-digit scorers for the time being.
Jazz vs. Rockets pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Rockets as a 15.5-point favorite at home tonight with -1340 odds on the Moneyline. The Jazz are a +810 underdog to win outright on the road with the total set at 220.5 combined points.
This understaffed Utah roster is struggling in plenty of areas, and frankly, just doesn’t have the firepower to stick around tonight. The offense is one of the lowest-scoring attacks in the league at second-to-last in PPG, so overcoming a stingy Houston defense should prove difficult. Likewise, the Jazz defense will likely struggle to contain the numerous scoring options the Rockets deploy – key in on Sengun and they’ll attack from the perimeter, but sell out to stop the three and they’ll eat in the paint.
The 15.5-point spread is quite wide, and typically, I wouldn’t endorse taking the favorite to cover in this kind of circumstance. However, Utah’s average point differential is -11.5, which falls third-to-last. The Jazz are also 2-9-1 ATS while the Rockets are 9-3 ATS themselves. Houston could roll tonight, especially with the NBA Cup meaning they’re incentivized to keep scoring for the purposes of inflating their point differential in the group standings.
