The Washington Capitals visit the Ottawa Senators on Tuesday night, with puck drop set for 7:00 p.m. ET at Canadian Tire Centre. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Ottawa is a -125 favorite on the Moneyline, while the total is set at O/U 6.5 goals.
Below, I’ll break down the matchup and provide my top Senators vs. Capitals prediction and best bet.
Senators vs. Capitals Odds
| Market | Washington Capitals | Ottawa Senators |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +105 | -125 |
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-230) | -1.5 (+190) |
| Total | Over 6.5 (+105) | Under 6.5 (-125) |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.
Senators vs. Capitals Betting Preview
Ottawa Senators Outlook
Ottawa has quietly turned into one of the better 5v5 teams in the NHL over the past few weeks. Across its past 10 games, the Senators have controlled 57.6% of the 5v5 xGoals, good for second, along with a 53.6% 5v5 Corsi% (fifth), and their 2.02 5v5 xGoals against per 60 in that span rank third. Another positive is the fact that the Senators sport a 6-2-0 record at home this season.
Tim Stutzle (9G, 14A) leads the team with 23 points, and Drake Batherson (9G, 9A) is tied with him for the team lead in goals. One area of weakness has been the power play, which ranks 31st in the NHL at 13.2%, so most of the club’s damage comes at even strength. Linus Ullmark (lower body) is still sidelined, which puts Samuel Ersson between the pipes, and he has won three straight starts while allowing just four goals against 81 shots. On the season, he’s 3-3-1 with a -1.4 GSAx and -0.37% SV% above expected, ranking 51st and 49th, respectively, among 75 goaltenders.
Washington Capitals Outlook
Washington can keep up with just about any team in the NHL, ranking second in 5v5 xGoals per 60 (3.05) and averaging 3.53 goals per game (eighth), but keeping the puck out of its own net has been the primary concern. The Capitals’ 3.45 xGoals against per 60 rank 27th, and they’ve allowed 2.88 goals per 60 at 5v5, which is also 27th.
Newcomer Alex Tuch (11G, 2A) has carried the goal scoring, while Dylan Strome (3G, 11A) and Jordan Kyrou (5G, 9A) are tied for the team lead with 14 points. Logan Thompson is expected to draw the start, and he has allowed three or more goals in four of his past five starts. Plus, he was pulled after giving up four goals on just 11 shots against Dallas on Nov. 3. His .888 SV% and 3.20 GAA don’t jump off the page, although his +1.5 GSAx and +0.24% SV% above expected are a bit better, ranking 24th and 28th, respectively. Washington is also just 2-2-0 on the road this season.
Senators vs. Capitals Prediction and Best Bet
The Senators have been the better 5v5 team lately, they’re tough to beat at home, and Ersson has somewhat found his footing between the pipes, while the Capitals continue to give up high-quality chances in their own zone. The public sees this tilt the same way, with 73% of the bets and 78% of the money on the Senators Moneyline, and I’ll be joining them.
Best Bet: Senators Moneyline (-125)
Advanced stats courtesy of MoneyPuck.
