The Bowling Green Falcons host the Kent State Golden Flashes in a Tuesday night MACtion battle. The game kicks off at 7:00 p.m. ET on Tuesday in Bowling Green, Ohio.
The Falcons are listed as 4.5-point home favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at O/U 43.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and best bet for this Week 11 matchup.
Bowling Green vs. Kent State Prediction, Preview
Kent State Preview
It has been another rough season for the Golden Flashes. From 2023 to 2024, they were arguably the worst program in the FBS. Mark Carney came in last season and made some tangible improvements, leading the team to a 5-7 record. However, barring a late-season winning push, the Golden Flashes will take a step back, rather than improving on that season. They aren’t all the way back in the basement of the MAC, but are still a long way from competing for the conference. Dru DeShields is in his second season as the starting quarterback, and Kent State does have a standout receiver, Wayne Harris. That being said, Kent State has the second-worst offense in the country this season, ranking 137th in adj. offensive EPA/play.
Bowling Green Preview
Bowling Green is not having a good season either. They are currently 2-7 and on a four-game losing streak. The Bowling Green offense has also been really poor this season. Only five offenses in the country rank worse than Bowling Green in adj. offensive EPA/play. However, one of those offenses just happens to be Kent State. The Falcons are inexperienced at almost every position on offense and don’t have any real standout player. They have scored a bit more efficiently over the past few weeks, but have been quite inconsistent. The Falcons are coming off a bye week, so they have a chance to try to go on a run down the stretch if they are able to fix some of their issues.
Bowling Green vs. Kent State Pick, Best Bet
My best bet for this game is on the over 43.5 total points. This is a scary over, as these are two of the six worst offenses in the country by adj. EPA/play. That is the reason the total is so low. However, these are also two bad defenses. Kent State ranks 116th in defensive success rate and Bowling Green ranks 121st in defensive success rate. This is an incredibly low total for two defenses that are so easy to move the ball against.
Bowling Green did score 24 or more points in three of its past four games before the bye week. Kent State has a terrible offense, but one great player that can put up six points in a flash. Look no further than the game against Akron, in which wideout Wayne Harris went for 156 yards and three touchdowns. That type of player can instantly put some points on the board, making him a real threat to a total this low.
Both of these teams have had rough seasons, but both are coming off a bye week. If there is to be any sort of positive momentum to close out the season for these teams, it needs to come now. Both teams should come into this game with strong offensive game plans to try to find some kind of spark. There is also excellent weather expected for a November MAC game. The temperature should be in the 50s with minimal wind and no precipitation when this game kicks off. For having two of the worst offenses in the country, there are a lot of signs pointing towards points being scored in this game.
