The Vegas Golden Knights visit the Buffalo Sabres on Sunday afternoon, with puck drop set for 3:30 p.m. ET at KeyBank Center. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Vegas is a -112 favorite on the Moneyline, while the total is set at O/U 6.5 goals.
Below, I’ll break down the matchup and provide my top Sabres vs. Golden Knights prediction and best bet.
Sabres vs. Golden Knights Odds
| Market | Vegas Golden Knights | Buffalo Sabres |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -112 | -108 |
| Puck Line | -1.5 (+230) | +1.5 (-285) |
| Total | Over 6.5 (-105) | Under 6.5 (-115) |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.
Sabres vs. Golden Knights Betting Preview
Buffalo Sabres Outlook
Over their past 10 games, the Sabres have controlled just 46.8% of the xGoals, good for 23rd in the NHL, and their 3.43 xGoals against per 60 rank is tied for 25th. Tage Thompson (10G, 9A) and Jack Quinn (9G, 7A) have carried the scoring, with Thompson’s 10 goals coming on 7.1 xGoals, and Zach Benson leads the team with 13 assists.
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is expected to make his second straight start after allowing two goals in each of his past two, though his .878 SV% and 3.27 GAA on the season are below average. His -1.0 GSAx and -0.18% SV% above expected rank 43rd and 36th, respectively, among 75 goaltenders. To make things even worse for Buffalo, the power play ranks 29th (15.1%), with just eight goals at 5-on-4 on 10.0 xGoals.
Vegas Golden Knights Outlook
Vegas has won back-to-back road games against Pittsburgh and Detroit, and the defense remains its backbone. The Golden Knights allow 2.69 xGoals against per 60, the fourth-fewest in the NHL, and their 2.72 goals allowed per game rank fifth. Their 54.0% 5v5 xGoals share is tied for fifth, too, although their 47.6% Corsi% over the past 10 games ranks tied for 26th, so they haven’t been pushing the pace the way they did early on in the season.
Jack Eichel (7G, 16A), a former first-round pick by the Sabres, leads the team with 23 points, and Mark Stone has a team-high 10 goals on 6.5 xGoals. Tomas Hertl has been the club’s consistent 5v5 skater, with Vegas controlling 63.6% of the 5v5 xGoals with him on the ice. Adin Hill likely draws the start between the pipes after Carter Hart stopped 25 of 26 shots on Thursday against Detroit, and Hill sports an .895 SV%, 2.73 GAA, -0.7 GSAx (38th) and -0.17% SV% above expected (35th).
Sabres vs. Golden Knights Prediction and Best Bet
Buffalo has won four of the past five meetings between these teams, and the last two were low-scoring affairs: a 3-2 Sabres win on March 3 and a 2-0 Sabres win on March 17 last season. The Sabres have leaked quality chances lately, but Vegas suppresses them well, and Buffalo’s power play has struggled mightily. Only three of Buffalo’s eight home games and three of Vegas’ nine road games have cleared 6.5 goals this season, so I’ll take the under.
Best Bet: Under 6.5 Goals (-115)
Advanced stats courtesy of MoneyPuck.
