The Pittsburgh Penguins visit the Anaheim Ducks on Sunday night, with puck drop set for 8:00 p.m. ET at Honda Center. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Anaheim is a -120 favorite on the Moneyline, while the total is set at O/U 6.5 goals.
Below, I’ll break down the matchup and provide my top Ducks vs. Penguins prediction and best bet.
Ducks vs. Penguins Odds
| Market | Pittsburgh Penguins | Anaheim Ducks |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +100 | -120 |
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-238) | -1.5 (+195) |
| Total | Over 6.5 (-148) | Under 6.5 (+124) |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.
Ducks vs. Penguins Betting Preview
Anaheim Ducks Outlook
Want to guess how many home wins Anaheim has this season? Just two, as the Ducks are 2-4-1 at Honda Center despite a 7-3-0 record on the road. They’ve won four straight games, scoring five or more goals in each, and their 3.73 goals per 60 rank fourth in the NHL. The expected numbers aren’t as great, as Anaheim ranks 19th in xGoals per 60 (3.03), and that gap comes from a power play that has scored 19 goals at 5-on-4 on just 10.6 xGoals. At 5v5, the Ducks rank 15th in goals per 60 and 23rd in xGoals per 60.
Anaheim’s defense looks flat out bad, as its 3.73 goals against per 60 rank 30th, its 3.44 xGoals against per 60 rank 26th, and its 42.3% 5v5 xGoals share over the past 10 games ranks 30th. Leo Carlsson (6G, 20A) leads the team with 26 points, and Beckett Sennecke (10G, 11A) has been a big part of the offensive frenzies, too. Ville Husso should draw the start after stopping all 10 shots he faced in relief of Lukas Dostal on Friday against Calgary, but he owns an .868 SV% and 3.55 GAA, and his -2.1 GSAx and -0.82% SV% above expected rank 57th and 54th, respectively, among 75 goaltenders.
Pittsburgh Penguins Outlook
Pittsburgh’s road games have turned into high-scoring affairs, with eight of its nine road games clearing 6.5 goals and five of them reaching eight or more. The Penguins can keep up at 5v5, ranking ninth in goals per 60 (2.70) and sixth in xGoals per 60 (2.84), so the offense is holding up in both results and underlying numbers. The other end has been the problem, as Pittsburgh’s 3.05 5v5 goals against per 60 rank 29th, its 5v5 xGoals against per 60 rank tied for 22nd, and its 58 high-danger shots allowed are the second-most in the NHL. The Penguins sport a poor 2-6-1 record on the road, too.
Erik Karlsson (3G, 14A) leads the team with 17 points, and Evgeni Malkin (6G, 8A) has scored six goals on 4.1 xGoals. Pittsburgh is on the second night of a back-to-back after Sergei Murashov stopped 26 of 28 shots on Saturday in Los Angeles, so Arturs Silovs should draw the start between the pipes tonight. Silovs gave up six goals on 24 shots in Thursday’s 6-2 loss to Boston, and his .876 SV%, 3.26 GAA, -1.2 GSAx (47th) and -0.21% SV% above expected (37th) aren’t exactly eye-popping.
Ducks vs. Penguins Prediction and Best Bet
Anaheim has scored four or more goals in 10 of its 17 games, including five or more in each of its past four, while Pittsburgh has allowed four or more in six of its nine road games and ranks 29th in 5v5 goals against per 60. The over 6.5 is far too juiced at -148, so I’ll back Anaheim’s team total over 3.5 instead.
Best Bet: Ducks Team Total Over 3.5 (-110)
Advanced stats courtesy of MoneyPuck.
