A matchup with massive implications is on tap tonight in Columbia. #7 Texas (6-2, 3-2) has had its share of ups and downs this season. As things stand right now, the Longhorns control their own postseason destiny. It’s a similar story for #18 Missouri (6-2, 3-2), another SEC contender with massive upside. The Tigers have a chance to earn a program-defining victory tonight at home.
The Longhorns are listed as 2.5-point favorites over the Tigers, with the total set at O/U 42.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and best bet for Saturday’s Texas vs. Missouri Week 10 matchup.
Texas vs. Missouri prediction, preview
Offensively, this season has been a mixed bag in Austin. It all starts with marquee quarterback Arch Manning. The senior, while talented, hasn’t quite lived up to the hype on campus. Through eight games, he’s thrown for 1,727 yards, 15 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Those numbers, especially the turnovers, aren’t the most encouraging. It’s not as if the Longhorns have offered their gunslinger much support on the ground. Texas is averaging just 3.63 yards per rush attempt, fourth-fewest in the SEC. To make matters worse, running back Hollywood Smothers is out for this weekend’s contest. Wide receivers Cam Coleman and Ryan Wingo are both listed as questionable.
Moving the ball won’t be easy for Texas this afternoon, even at full strength. Missouri is a force on that side of the ball, especially inside the trenches. The school is allowing just 2.94 yards per rush attempt, 14th-best among all FBS schools. It’s not as if things are much easier through the air either. The Tigers have surrendered 6.6 yards per pass attempt, fifth-best in the SEC. Only two teams, Mississippi State and #10 Ole Miss, have scored more than 21 points against Mizzou this season. Both of those contests came on the road.
Missouri’s chances in Week 10 likely hinge on its ability to keep the chains moving. Few programs in college football have been better in that regard. Running back Jamal Roberts has been a statistical monster, posting an SEC-best 1,005 rushing yards along with ten total touchdowns. The senior was granted the RB1 job thanks to an extended injury absence for Ahmad Hardy, last season’s conference rushing leader. Hardy made his debut in Week 9, gaining five yards on two carries vs. Arkansas. Expect more involvement as this backfield evolves into a potentially dangerous committee. It helps that quarterback Austin Simmons is a steady hand, giving up just two interceptions this season.
The Longhorns, for all their difficulty scoring the ball, remain a juggernaut on the defensive end of the field. They’re giving up just 4.03 yards per play, best in the SEC. That’s due in large part to an elite pass defense, allowing a minuscule 5.4 yards per pass attempt. This crew knows how to get after the quarterback. Texas has racked 26.0 sacks and 59.0 tackles for loss, both marks third-best in the conference. That’s due in large part to Colin Simmons, a one-man wrecking ball. The edge rusher has notched 10.0 sacks and 16.5 tackles for loss in just six games played. Unfortunately, he’s been sidelined since October 17th due to an ankle sprain. He’s currently listed as questionable for Saturday.
Texas vs. Missouri Best Bet
The Tigers are a different beast when playing at Faurot Field. They have a stellar 10-2 record at home over the past two seasons. Texas may possess more talent, but injuries have created a good deal of uncertainty for the visitors. A bruising run game should find a way to incorporate the dynamic Hardy into its run game as well. At plus money, back hard-nosed Missouri in this one.
Best Bet: Missouri ML (+120)
For more college football picks, join the CFB Betting Group.
