A battle for SEC supremacy headlines Week 10’s loaded college football slate. #6 Kentucky (7-1, 5-1) is shattering expectations, looking the part of a postseason contender. A win this afternoon would put the Wildcats in a commanding position to reach the CFP. As for #13 Tennessee (6-2. 3-2), this is a make-or-break opportunity. The difference between a win or loss likely determines whether the Volunteers can compete for a national championship.
The Volunteers are listed as 6.5-point favorites over the Wildcats, with the total set at O/U 50.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and best bet for Saturday’s Kentucky vs. Tennessee Week 10 matchup.
Kentucky vs. Tennessee prediction, preview
What a season this has been in Lexington. Other than a slip-up against #5 Alabama, just about everything has gone right for Kentucky through eight games. That includes massive victories over #21 South Carolina and #14 LSU. Today’s game presents a major chance at bolstering the resume, even flirting with a bye during the CFP. Granted, it’s not as if the Wildcats have won all their games in dominant fashion. Both of their previously mentioned ranked wins came in overtime.
UK doesn’t wield a high-octane scoring attack, ranking tenth in the SEC with 386.4 yards per game. It’s not as if the team has been burning a ton of clock, either. Regardless, all that matters is getting in the win column. In that regard, quarterback Kenny Minchey has done a stellar job under center. The senior has thrown for 1,755 yards and 14 touchdowns this season. Most important, he’s coughed up just one interception. On the ground, CJ Baxter and Jason Patterson have combined for 930 rushing yards and 11 total touchdowns as well. The former is dealing with a soft tissue injury, but he’s expected to suit up this weekend.
Moving the ball could be more difficult than usual this evening for Big Blue Nation. That’s due to their opponents, among college football’s elite defenses. The Volunteers are allowing 288.4 yards and 16.3 points per game to opponents, fourth and third-fewest in the SEC respectively. It’s not as if they’ve been shutting down bad squads either. Tennessee has held Alabama and #7 Texas to a combined 30 points this season. Last week’s 27-point output for South Carolina was a letdown, but it came on the road. Where the Vols truly shine is generating pressure, pacing the conference with 35.0 sacks and 66.0 tackles for loss.
The other side of the ball will likely be what determines today’s game for head coach Josh Heupel. Unlike in years past, the Volunteers have been somewhat inconsistent on offense. A quarterback controversy hasn’t helped matters in Knoxville. Freshman Faizon Brandon began this season as the team’s starter, delivering mixed results. However, former backup George MacIntyre has gotten the nod through three straight games. Through seven appearances this season, he’s thrown for 728 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions.
Only one Tennessee pass catcher, Mike Matthews, has surpassed 300 receiving yards this season. Fortunately for the Vols, DeSean Bishop offers explosiveness out of the backfield. The standout running back has already recorded 957 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground.
On paper, Kentucky’s defense isn’t the most impressive. The school is allowing 362.6 yards per game to opponents, sixth-most in the SEC. What this group does have working in its favor is a knack for making big plays. UK has snagged 12 interceptions, tied with Alabama for the most in the conference. There’s a chance the Wildcats add to that total tonight against Tennessee’s mediocre passing game. To boot, Kentucky is allowing just 6.6 yards per pass attempt in its secondary.
Kentucky vs. Tennessee Best Bet
The Volunteers haven’t been a model of consistency this season, so there’s some risk in this spread. Regardless, even the most ardent UK fan can admit the school has had its share of close calls. Kentucky will be looking to force turnovers on defense, but a stout Tennessee run game can mitigate that factor. In addition, the Wildcats aren’t the most explosive offense. If their drives end in long field goals, an upset here becomes even more difficult. At home, I’ll back the Vols to win by seven or more tonight.
Best Bet: Tennessee -6.5 (-121)
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