It’s an NBA Cup night, bringing colorful courts and additional stakes to Friday night’s schedule. The top two teams in the Western Conference battle in the late window when the Trail Blazers and Lakers go toe-to-toe. With each riding a three-game winning streak, someone’s run will come to an end here.
Read on for a full preview, prediction and pick for Friday’s Trail Blazers vs. Lakers matchup, courtesy of odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Trail Blazers vs. Lakers prediction, preview
Last season, Portland unexpectedly made the NBA Playoffs but was promptly bounced out of the first round. The front office shook the roster up by sending Jerami Grant and Kris Murray out for Ja Morant, buying low on a depleted asset. While the former Grizzlies star is out tonight – as is Shaedon Sharpe while he continues to recover from meniscus surgery – this team is winning more than expected. The Trail Blazers are 6-1 and sit atop their conference, while they’re yet to play their first NBA Cup game. Shockingly, they’re first in NETRTG at +11.2, but seeing them lead the league with 121.9 PPG and the best OFFRTG isn’t quite as much of a surprise. They’re shooting 47.6% from the field, fifth best, while a 35.5% 3P% ranks 12th. The Blazers are seventh in rebounding with 47.4 boards per game and are also 10th in assists with 27.1, too. Defensively, they’re holding opponents to the fourth-fewest made threes and are 10th or better in opponent FG% and 3P%, also ranking 12th in opponent PPG (110.7) and 12th in DEFRTG.
The Trail Blazers have gotten 23.4 points, 6.4 rebounds and 6.4 assists per game from Deni Avdija, who earned his first All-Star nod last season. The real feel-good story of this team – and perhaps the entire league – is Damian Lillard. The veteran guard left Portland in 2023 but returned last year, though a torn Achilles meant he didn’t make a single appearance for the team. He’s averaging 20.1 PPG in his return to action, second most on this roster. Toumani Camara and Jrue Holiday provide 13.7 and 13.4 PPG with two-way ability, with the latter coming off the bench. Donovan Clingan is also averaging a double-double with 12.0 points and 10.6 boards a night.
Meanwhile, the Lakers lost LeBron James via free agency this offseason, but they did make some other additions, primarily Walker Kessler. Through the first few weeks, they’re 7-2 and second in the Western Conference, though they lost their first NBA Cup game. Los Angeles is seventh in NETRTG at +7.9 and has a similarly-excellent offense to tonight’s opponent – this unit averages the second-most PPG with 121.8 and sits second in OFFRTG, too. The Lakers are the most efficient team in the NBA with a league-leading 51.2% FG% and a 38.8% 3P% that ranks third, also taking the fourth-most free throws. While low on the assist and turnover leaderboards, they’re still scoring plenty behind a pair of stars. The other areas of the game are slightly more concerning, though. They fall 29th in rebounding with 39.9 per game, while the defense allows 113.9 PPG to opponents (18th) and sits 19th in DEFRTG.
Still, those issues matter less when your stars are on fire. Luka Doncic averages a ridiculous 38.5 points – an NBA-best mark – with 8.1 rebounds and 8.0 assists per game, connecting on a career-best 43.1% of his threes thus far. Austin Reaves is a clear second fiddle, but brings 23.3 points and 5.0 dimes a night while hitting 42.9% of his shots from distance, too. Kessler is averaging 14.4 points and 10.2 rebounds a game, with Ziaire Williams the lone other scorer in double figures at 10.7 PPG. Collin Sexton is also a scorer off the bench with 9.8 PPG. It should be noted that Sandro Mamukelashvili, a key rotation center, is questionable tonight.
Trail Blazers vs. Lakers pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Lakers as a 3.5-point favorite at home tonight with -154 odds on the Moneyline. The Trail Blazers are a +140 underdog to win outright on the road with the total set at 231.5 combined points.
The over in this matchup looks pretty juicy. Doncic and Reaves are going nuclear for the second-best offense in the NBA in both raw PPG and OFFRTG, which also happens to be finishing at an elite clip. Avdija and Lillard are a capable top two and are joined by plenty of rotation pieces who can get hot in a hurry, which has powered them to league-leading marks in PPG and OFFRTG. If you’re pitting the two best offenses against each other in primetime, does any pick make sense besides the over? The total of 231.5 isn’t set unreasonably high by any means – I’d argue it’s too low, frankly – so this clearly has the makings of the top betting pick for this contest.
