Jaden Craig ended an 84-yard drive against Kansas by running the final 17 himself. The TCU quarterback had spent much of the afternoon laboring for completions, yet he carried 15 times for 87 yards and scored the winner in a 22–16 game. Arizona has had two recent afternoons when runners got through the first level and the Wildcats spent far too much of the next few seconds trying to get them down. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Arizona Wildcats and the TCU Horned Frogs.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Arizona vs. TCU prediction, preview
Texas Tech rushed for 328 yards against Arizona, including 117 from quarterback Thomas Castellanos. West Virginia ran for 303 three weeks earlier. Craig can put the same strain on Arizona’s pursuit, and TCU back Jeremy Payne is probable with Jon Denman out. If Payne can take regular carries, Arizona has to defend the handoff as seriously as it defends Craig. That gives the Frogs a better way to get through first down than they had for much of the Kansas game.
Even with the winning march, TCU averaged 1.36 points per competitive drive against Kansas and got one of its touchdowns from linebacker Max Carroll on an interception. The Frogs have averaged 1.45 points per competitive FBS drive all season, 125th nationally. Arizona ranks 25th in opponent-adjusted success rate allowed, and the Wildcats can put Craig back in difficult passing situations by winning a handful of early downs. TCU cut its sacks allowed to one against Kansas after surrendering 11 over the previous three games. How much of that improvement travels matters here.
Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita can get the Wildcats out of difficult downs in a single throw. He’s completed 74.1% of his passes, and receiver Isaiah Mizell has cleared 100 yards in three straight games. Against Texas Tech, Fifita threw for 417 and Arizona scored 26. The Wildcats got 12 yards on the ground, leaving him to work through nearly every poor down himself. TCU has the front to put him in that position again.
TCU vs. Arizona pick, best bet
The Frogs rank fifth in opponent-adjusted EPA per rush allowed and 17th per pass. They’ve surrendered four passing touchdowns in eight games, and punter John Hoyet Chance has put half of his 34 punts inside the 20. Fifita can still hit Mizell for a quick score, particularly if Arizona starts near midfield. The Wildcats can also give Craig a short field if their replacement defensive backs lose a receiver and TCU flips field position before the drive stalls.
I’m taking under 46.5. Craig’s legs raise TCU’s ceiling, and Fifita is dangerous enough to take Arizona into the 30s if he gets extra possessions or connects deep repeatedly. I expect the Frogs to make him work for those chances. Craig can run them into scoring territory a few times, and Arizona can still end enough of those drives before he reaches the end zone.
Best bet: Under 46.5 (-108).
Projected score: Arizona 27, TCU 17.
Best Bet: Arizona vs. TCU u46.5 total points scored (-110)
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