Sacramento State freshman running back Isaiah Ene tore through Kent State for the go-ahead score from 35 yards out Friday. The Hornets won their first MAC game that night and get five days to turn around for Senior Day. Toledo comes to Hornet Stadium with 11 days between games after hanging 45 on Western Michigan. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Sacramento State Hornets and the Toledo Rockets.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Sacramento State vs. Toledo prediction, preview
Toledo quarterback John Alan Richter threw for 391 yards with four regular starters missing up front. He found receiver Adjatay Dabbs eight times for 124 yards, and running back CJ Miller made those replacement blockers’ work count. Miller took one carry right for nine, drove up the middle for ten on the next snap and finished with 183 on 33 carries. When Western Michigan clawed back to tie it at 38, Miller broke the tie from 11 yards out. The Broncos lead the MAC in sacks in league play and got to Richter three times. He still ripped them for 9.5 yards per attempt.
Sacramento State linebacker Fata Puloka pried the ball loose twice against Kent State. A week earlier, his front had to absorb 183 rushing yards from Ball State. The Hornets have had a hell of a time getting runners on the ground near their goal line (14 rushing touchdowns allowed on 24 MAC red-zone trips). Toledo has run for eight and thrown for four on 18 league visits. If Puloka and the Hornets squeeze down on Miller, Richter can go right back to Dabbs.
Ene rushed for 107 yards against Kent State, and the Hornets need some of that work on first down to give quarterback Jackson Sharman time to throw on his terms. Ball State held them to 54 net rushing yards, though Sharman still hit receiver Jace Wilson for a 65-yard touchdown. How often will he get time to find Wilson? Sacramento State has surrendered 17 sacks in six MAC games. Toledo defensive end Andrew Zock has eight of his own.
Toledo vs. Sacramento State pick, best bet
The Hornets also need a way to score when the defense hands them the ball at their own 20. That was their average starting spot against Ball State, and they crossed midfield just once after halftime. Against Kent State, their defense took the ball away five times and returned an interception for a touchdown. Richter has thrown just two picks in 259 attempts. I expect Sharman to face more long fields Wednesday, and the Hornets have converted a paltry 28.6% of their third downs in MAC play.
Sharman could still find Wilson late and put the spread in play. Toledo can answer on the ground. Running back Autavius Ison gained 104 yards at Eastern Michigan, and Miller can shoulder another heavy night if senior back Connor Walendzak remains out. I expect the Rockets to run for enough second-half first downs to leave the Hornets precious few possessions to cut into the lead.
Best bet: Toledo -25.5 (-108).
Projected score: Toledo 42, Sacramento State 13.
Best Bet: Toledo -25.5 (-108)
For easy access to tail my CFB picks swiftly, click here to join the CFB Committee Betting Group on DraftKings Sportsbook.
