Texas voters will elect a U.S. senator on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. DraftKings Predictions lists the two major-party nominees for the seat: Democratic Texas state Rep. James Talarico and Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn lost the GOP primary runoff to Paxton and is not on the general-election ballot.
Disclaimer: The following article reflects market activity at the time of capture — not official election results.
DraftKings Predictions Markets: 2026 Texas Senate Election
Pricing reflects market sentiment and is subject to change.
James Talarico (D) — 76% Yes
- Party: Democratic
- Current role: Texas state representative for District 50
- From: Austin, Texas
- Age: 37
- Background: Talarico, a former public-school teacher, has served in the Texas House since 2018. He won the Democratic Senate nomination in 2026 and is seeking to become the first Democrat elected statewide in Texas in decades.
Talarico’s 76% “Yes” figure indicates that the prediction market is currently pricing him as the favorite in this race. It is a market-based price, not an official result or a guarantee of the outcome.
Ken Paxton (R) — 30% Yes
- Party: Republican
- Current role: Texas attorney general
- From: McKinney, Texas
- Age: 63
- Background: Paxton has served as Texas attorney general since 2015. Before that, he represented North Texas in both the Texas House and Texas Senate. He defeated Cornyn in the 2026 Republican primary runoff to secure the party’s Senate nomination.
Paxton’s 30% “Yes” figure reflects the market’s current view of his market to win the Texas Senate race. The percentage can move as new polling, campaign developments and trading activity affect the market.
When is the Texas Senate election?
Texas’ U.S. Senate election is on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Voters will elect a senator to a full six-year term beginning in January 2027.
Who currently holds the Texas Senate seat?
The seat is currently held by Republican Sen. John Cornyn, who has represented Texas in the U.S. Senate since 2003. Cornyn sought reelection in 2026 but lost the Republican primary runoff to Paxton, making this an open-seat race for the next term.
Prediction-market percentages reflect current trading activity and may not add up to exactly 100% because of market pricing and other factors. They are a real-time indicator of market expectations, rather than a definitive election forecast.
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