Voters will decide control of Congress in the 2026 midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are on the ballot, and Democrats need a net gain of four in each chamber to take both. Find the latest DraftKings Predictions market for the balance of power in Congress after the 2026 elections below.
Disclaimer: The following article reflects market activity at the time of capture — not official election results.
DraftKings Predictions Market: Midterms Congress Balance of Power 2026
Pricing reflects market sentiment and is subject to change.
Democratic House, Democratic Senate — 80% Yes
This outcome requires Democrats to flip both chambers. In the House, that means a net gain of four seats, from 214 to the 218 that constitute a majority. In the Senate, it also means a net gain of four, from the 47 seats Democrats and the two independents who caucus with them currently hold to an outright 51-seat majority. Democrats have not controlled both chambers at once since the 117th Congress.
The 80% “Yes” price on a Democratic sweep indicates that the prediction market is currently assigning this outcome the stronger market position among the four. It is a market-based price, not an official result or a guarantee of the outcome.
Democratic House, Republican Senate — 23% Yes
This outcome requires Democrats to gain four House seats while Republicans hold the Senate. Republicans enter Election Day with 53 Senate seats and need no net change to keep the chamber. They can also retain it at 50 seats, because Vice President JD Vance would be available to cast tie-breaking votes. Republicans are defending 22 of the 35 Senate seats on the ballot, including special elections in Ohio and Florida.
The 23% “Yes” price on a split Congress with a Democratic House reflects the market’s current view of that combination. That figure can move as polling, campaign developments and trading activity change.
Republican House, Republican Senate — 10% Yes
This is the only outcome that leaves the current balance of power unchanged. Republicans hold 218 House seats and 53 Senate seats, and would need no net gain in either chamber. Speaker Mike Johnson has held the gavel since October 2023, and the party has controlled the House since January 2023 and the Senate since January 2025.
The 10% “Yes” price on Republicans holding both chambers reflects the market’s current view of that combination. That figure can move as polling, campaign developments and trading activity change.
Republican House, Democratic Senate — 4% Yes
This is the only outcome in which the two chambers move in opposite directions. Republicans would hold the House without a net gain, while Democrats would pick up four Senate seats. The Senate map is the harder of the two for Democrats on paper, with 22 Republican-held seats up but most of the competitive races on Republican turf.
The 4% “Yes” price on a Republican House with a Democratic Senate reflects the market’s current view of that combination. That figure can move as polling, campaign developments and trading activity change.
When are the 2026 midterm elections?
The 2026 midterm elections are on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. House winners will serve two-year terms and Senate winners elected in the regularly scheduled races will serve six-year terms, with the 120th Congress seated in January 2027.
How many seats are up in Congress in 2026?
Congress has 535 voting members — 435 in the House of Representatives and 100 in the Senate. The entire House is elected every two years, while roughly one-third of the Senate is up in each cycle.
In 2026, voters will decide 470 congressional races:
- All 435 House seats, with 218 needed for a majority
- 35 Senate seats, with 51 needed for an outright majority
- 33 regularly scheduled Senate elections, plus special elections in Ohio and Florida
- 22 Republican-held and 13 Democratic-held Senate seats being defended
- Five of the six non-voting House delegate seats
Republicans hold a 218-214 edge in the House, with one independent and two vacancies, and a 53-47 edge in the Senate with the two independents caucusing with Democrats.
Tightest races to watch in 2026
The Senate fight runs through seven states rated as tossups: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas. North Carolina is the other Republican-held seat drawing heavy attention, with Thom Tillis retiring and Democrat Roy Cooper facing Republican Michael Whatley. The open seats in Michigan and New Hampshire are the two Democrats are working hardest to defend.
In the House, mid-decade redistricting reshaped the map before a single vote was cast. Texas enacted a map adding five Republican-leaning districts, California voters answered by approving a map that eliminates five Republican seats, and Ohio, North Carolina and Louisiana all enacted new lines. Eleven districts Donald Trump carried in 2024 are still held by Democrats, among them Maine’s 2nd, Michigan’s 8th, Nevada’s 3rd and Ohio’s 9th, while three districts Kamala Harris carried are held by Republicans: Nebraska’s 2nd, New York’s 17th and Pennsylvania’s 1st. Sixty representatives are not seeking reelection, the second-most retirements in a single cycle behind 1992.
Prediction-market percentages reflect current trading activity and may not add up to exactly 100% because of market pricing and other factors. They are a real-time indicator of market expectations, rather than a definitive election forecast.
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