Tampa Bay ran Carolina into the ground for 258 rushing yards in a 43-13 demolition, then came home to confront an irritating fact: the Buccaneers have lost all four games at Raymond James Stadium. Atlanta arrives after beating San Francisco 29-20. Both teams have found useful ways to win; Tampa Bay still has to prove its newfound control survives a front that tackles and changes the blocking picture. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Atlanta Falcons.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Buccaneers vs. Falcons prediction, preview
Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving helped establish that control immediately against Carolina, having his number called on 11 of the first 14 plays. Offensive coordinator Zac Robinson connected inside-zone runs, weakside counters and wrapping tight-end blocks, with receivers Chris Godwin and Ted Hurst finishing blocks downfield. Tampa Bay has converted 65.6% of third downs requiring one to three yards this season, against only 19.1% requiring seven or more. Those early gains give quarterback Baker Mayfield a very different afternoon.
Atlanta has allowed just 88.9 rushing yards per game, however. Falcons defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich changes fronts and disguises pressure, making Tampa Bay’s combination blocks and communication essential. If Irving starts meeting defenders earlier, Mayfield has to punish the extra attention. The Buccaneers still haven’t had a 200-yard passing game through seven weeks, and Mayfield attempted only 11 passes for 64 yards against Carolina. That blowout settled precious little about their ability to throw out of trouble.
Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. has been giving his offense clearer answers, throwing nine touchdowns against one interception across five starts. Against San Francisco, he accepted short completions when the defense restricted bigger gains. Atlanta running back Bijan Robinson managed 63 rushing yards but added 59 on five catches. Penix could advance without asking Bijan to plow through the same resistance on every snap.
Falcons vs. Buccaneers pick, best bet
Tampa Bay defensive tackle Vita Vea makes another difficult rushing afternoon plausible. The Buccaneers have allowed only 77.3 rushing yards per game, and coach Todd Bowles has sent blitzes on 41.3% of dropbacks over the past two games. Penix has taken a sack on 25.7% of his pressured dropbacks this season. Penix can lean on Falcons receiver Drake London (3.21 YPRR) and tight end Kyle Pitts, but he must deliver the ball before Bowles’ rush arrives.
Atlanta linebacker Divine Deablo and nickel back Billy Bowman Jr. remain out. Their replacements must handle Tampa Bay’s wrapping blocks and underneath throws after allowing San Francisco to advance often enough that it punted only once. Atlanta needed four takeaways to end those threats. Tampa Bay remains without receiver Emeka Egbuka and still lists right tackle Luke Goedeke as questionable. I’m taking Atlanta +2.5 because Penix has demonstrated more passing answers when the run stalls, while Mayfield faces a tougher front with a depleted receiving corps. Bijan can help Atlanta finish a close divisional game.
Best bet: Falcons +2.5 (-118).
Projected score: Falcons 24, Buccaneers 21.
