Northern Illinois has let consecutive opponents gain more than 500 yards, and interim coach Rob Harley now has to prepare for UNLV quarterback Jackson Arnold in Las Vegas. The Huskies have struggled to tackle runners, cover receivers or hurry a passer. They also scored 23 and 21 points in those defeats, with receiver DeAree Rogers playing well amid the blunders. He’s catching passes worth staying awake for. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the UNLV Rebels and the Northern Illinois Huskies.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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UNLV vs. UNI prediction, preview
Arnold threw for 246 yards and two touchdowns at Air Force, then rushed for 78 yards and another score. UNLV drove at least 75 yards for each of four touchdowns, with receiver Kayden McGee catching five passes for 99 yards and a 60-yard score. Northern Illinois just allowed Hawai‘i to pass for 329 yards and convert nine of 15 third downs. Arnold should have time to find McGee against defenders who have recorded no sacks over their last two games.
UNLV running back Jai’Den Thomas can make the assignment uglier. He rushed for 112 yards against North Dakota State before Air Force held him to 48 on 17 carries. Northern Illinois let Wyoming rush for 314 yards, then surrendered another 175 to Hawai‘i. Coach Dan Mullen can hand off to Thomas while Arnold threatens to run or throw himself. Harley’s front has been letting quarterbacks and backs advance together far too easily.
UNLV remains capable of spoiling their own evening. Arnold completed eight of 16 throws for a miserable 77 yards against North Dakota State, and the Rebels won 13–7 without an offensive touchdown. They scored through an interception return and two field goals. Their bye followed the Air Force loss, giving Mullen time to address passing that has lurched between extremes. Arnold should have an easier opponent this week, but he still has to complete useful throws when Thomas encounters resistance. He has yet to make his best football dependable.
UNI vs. UNLV pick, best bet
Northern Illinois quarterback Taron Dickens can answer through Rogers, who caught eight passes for 115 yards and two touchdowns against Hawai‘i after catching 11 for 89 at Wyoming. Running back Telly Johnson Jr. rushed for 139 yards against Wyoming, then gained 63 against Hawai‘i. UNLV allowed Air Force to rush for 430 yards. The option attack makes that an imperfect comparison, but Mullen’s defenders have substantial tackling repairs to make, and Johnson has demonstrated he can advance the handoffs beside Dickens.
Dickens threw two interceptions against Hawai‘i as Northern Illinois turned the ball over five times and converted one of seven third downs. I expect unfinished possessions at Allegiant Stadium, even with Rogers playing so well. The Huskies’ defenders also allowed six touchdown drives of at least 67 yards. Arnold can lead UNLV across the field against this defense, while Rogers and Johnson give Northern Illinois their own scoring chances. I’ll take over 54.5.
Best bet: Over 54.5 (DraftKings -105).
Projected score: UNLV 41, Northern Illinois 20.
Best Bet: Illinois -2.5 (-115) at Maryland
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