#4 Indiana (7-1, 4-1) survived a scare in Ann Arbor last week, eking out an overtime win over Michigan. The Hoosiers return home this Saturday for another pivotal Big Ten clash. Minnesota (5-2. 3-1) is enjoying a solid season under head coach P.J. Fleck. Can the Golden Gophers pull off a massive upset, or will IU continue its quest for a second straight national championship?
The Hoosiers are listed as 20.5-point favorites over the Gophers, with the total set at O/U 41.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and best bet for Saturday’s Minnesota vs. Indiana Week 9 matchup.
Minnesota vs. Indiana prediction, preview
It’s been a year of highs and lows for the Golden Gophers. They’ve suffered massive defeats at the hands of Mississippi State and Purdue. However, the program has also pulled off stellar wins against conference foes Washington, Michigan and most recently Iowa. At this point, it’s difficult to know what you’re getting from this group on a week to week basis. The offense is a work in progress, averaging the Big Ten’s third-fewest yards per game (322.4).
Throwing the ball has proven especially difficult for Minnesota. Starting quarterback Drake Lindsey has recorded just 1,472 passing yards, nine touchdowns and a conference-worst six interceptions. Things haven’t been much better on the ground, where Fleck’s crew is averaging just 3.5 yards per rush attempt. TJ Thomas has churned out 325 rushing yards and one touchdown, a meager total that currently leads the team. The best player on this offense right now might be Javon Tracy. Through seven games, the wideout has recorded 420 receiving yards and a touchdown on 39 receptions.
On paper, this shouldn’t be much of a challenge for the Hoosiers. Curt Cignetti has molded this defense into one of the nation’s stingiest units. Indiana is allowing just 264.8 yards and 12.0 points per game to opponents, eighth and second-best in college football respectively. Just as impressive, this group has racked up a Big Ten-leading 28.0 sacks and 65.0 tackles for loss. With that being said, Minnesota’s offensive line has allowed Lindsey to get sacked only seven times this season. IU is allowing a minuscule 2.14 yards per rush attempt. That level of dominance in the trenches could force the Gophers into more pass attempts than usual.
Indiana has had some difficulty of its own when it comes to moving the ball. The school has scored a combined 48 points over its previous three games. Granted, two of those contests came against elite Ohio State and Michigan defenses. Regardless, the champs will need to improve if they want to make another deep postseason run. New quarterback Josh Hoover has struggled recently in Bloomington. Last week vs. Michigan, he only managed to throw for 81 passing yards. Fortunately for IU, the run game remains a strength. Turbo Richard leads all Big Ten players with 711 rushing yards, finding the end zone eight times as well. RB2 Lee Beebe isn’t too far behind with 631 rushing yards and four scores of his own.
If Minnesota wants to hang around in this one, it’ll need to lean on its stout defense. The team is allowing 288.7 yards per game to opponents, eighth-fewest in the conference. Where the Golden Gophers really shine is in the secondary, surrendering just 6.2 yards per pass attempt. That’s third-best among all 18 Big Ten programs. They’re a bit more vulnerable on the ground, but certainly no pushovers in that regard. Minnesota has held opponents to 14 points or less in four of its seven games this season.
Best Bet: Minnesota +21.5 (-129)
Facing a Big Ten gauntlet hasn’t been great for this Hoosiers offense. This game is a bit easier compared to a road date with Michigan, but it’s not as if Indiana looked great last week. Minnesota’s knack for limiting opponents through the air could turn this matchup into a slog. Even if IU finds some success on the ground, it’ll likely burn up plenty of clock in the process. In what should be a low-scoring affair, I’ll buy up to 21.5 and back the Gophers to cover.
