Boise State running back Dylan Riley has scored on a run of at least 72 yards in consecutive games. Texas State arrives with quarterback Brad Jackson, who recently rushed for 181 yards himself. There should be some terrific running at Albertsons Stadium. Both offenses also labored through long stretches of stalled scoring last week. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Boise State Broncos and the Texas State Bobcats.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Boise State vs. Texas State prediction, preview
Riley followed 150 rushing yards at Fresno State with 128 at Washington State. He also caught a 44-yard touchdown against Fresno, giving Boise coach Spencer Danielson another way to involve a back who has become difficult to contain. Fellow back Sire Gaines is questionable after gaining 64 yards at Washington State. Danielson can lean on Riley, but he has less certainty about the rushing workload beside him if Gaines cannot play normally.
Broncos quarterback Maddux Madsen threw for 149 yards at Washington State, finding receiver Rasean Jones six times for 78. Boise scored ten points through three quarters before Riley erupted on touchdown runs of 33 and 72 yards. At Fresno State, Madsen sustained much more of the scoring, leading four touchdown possessions of at least 75 yards. Texas State has to defend that fuller offense. Their defenders just held Utah State to 73 rushing yards and four conversions on 14 third downs, enough resistance to make Boise work through some difficult possessions.
Jackson and running back Torrance Burgess Jr. can punish the Broncos in return. Burgess ran for 224 yards and four touchdowns against Colorado State; Jackson rushed for 181 and three scores. Coach GJ Kinne’s offense amassed 716 yards in the 66–27 win, repeatedly scoring after drives across most of the field. Boise allowed Fresno State to throw for 277 yards and score 31 points. Danielson’s defenders have real work against an offense that has already demonstrated how much damage it can do.
Texas State vs. Boise State pick, best bet
Utah State made Jackson’s next afternoon a slog. He completed 27 of 37 throws for just 167 yards, with receivers Chris Dawn Jr. and Beau Sparks combining for 86. Texas State allowed four sacks, rushed for 83 net yards and scored only one offensive touchdown. Running back Jaylen Jenkins returned a kickoff 100 yards for another. Boise held Washington State’s tailbacks to 20 yards on ten carries while sacking the quarterback four times. Jackson needs much sturdier blocking to recover the freedom he enjoyed against Colorado State.
Riley should give Boise the steadier rushing afternoon, with Madsen able to advance through the air when necessary. Jackson and Burgess should still hurt the Broncos enough to make this competitive. But Danielson’s front can interrupt Jackson’s passing as Utah State did, and Boise has also gone through long stretches without scoring. I’ll take under 63.5.
Best bet: Under 63.5 (-105).
Projected score: Boise State 34, Texas State 24.
Best Bet: Boise State vs. Texas State u63.5 total points scored (-105)
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