Southeast Division rivals will meet for the first time this season on Wednesday. Miami (0-4) is still searching for that first win, currently looking like an Eastern Conference afterthought. As for Atlanta (2-2), it’s been a solid start for an up and coming squad hoping to emerge as a contender. Can the Heat get back on track, or will the Hawks snag an important early season victory?
The Hawks enter today’s matchup as 1.5-point favorites, with the total set at 241.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Below is my full preview, prediction and best bet for Wednesday’s Miami vs. Atlanta contest.
Heat vs. Hawks prediction, preview
It’s been a disastrous start for the Heat this season. Not only is the team winless, but they haven’t looked cohesive on the court. Single-digit defeats to Dallas and Charlotte have been slightly encouraging, but moral victories don’t mean much. For a veteran squad that went all-in this offseason, this can’t spiral into a losing campaign. Blockbuster acquisition Giannis Antetokounmpo hasn’t been the problem for this roster. Through four games, the Greek Freak has posted 28.5 points, 9.5 rebounds and 5.0 assists while shooting 56% from the field.
Elsewhere, things have been far less promising. The Heat are averaging just 109.0 points per game, fourth-fewest in the NBA. That’s despite operating at the association’s seventh-quickest pace on offense (103.2). Part of those scoring struggles can be attributed to a mediocre 30.6% shooting percentage from three-point range. Bam Adebayo, expected to serve as a second option on offense, is putting up 11.8 points per game on 40% shooting. On the other end of the floor, Miami owns the tenth-worst defensive rating in basketball (118.0). Simply put, there isn’t anything this group can hang its hat on at the moment.
Following a first-round exit vs. the Knicks last postseason, Atlanta was active over the summer. The team brought aboard two former champions from Oklahoma City, Lu Dort and Aaron Wiggins. The former provides elite perimeter defense, while the latter is a knockdown shooter. That added depth is already paying dividends this season. The Hawks own a +9.0 net rating, seventh-best in the NBA. Their offense is putting up 121.0 points per game, fifth-most in the sport. However, Atlanta comes into this one on a cold streak, having dropped two straight to the Rockets.
If there’s a critique for the home team after one week of play, it’s on the glass. The Hawks are only averaging 41.8 rebounds per game, eighth-fewest in the NBA. That puts them at a disadvantage against bigger, more physical teams such as Houston. However, it may not be an issue during Wednesday’s matchup. Miami has been even worse in this regard, snagging the association’s third-fewest rebounds per game (40.5).
It’s worth noting that Aaron Wiggins (knee) is questionable to take the court this evening. Through four games, the forward is averaging 15.8 points on 54/48/71 shooting splits.
Best Bet: Hawks ML (-130)
Fading the Heat for a fifth straight game? If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Outside of Antetokounmpo, almost nothing has gone right for the Heat. Their already middling offense is struggling when it comes to chemistry and spacing. That tends to get better over time, but we’re only a week into the season. Superior shooting and defensive depth should power the Hawks to another victory at home tonight.
