Houston quarterback Conner Weigman threw five touchdowns against Oklahoma State and still had to help the Cougars finish with the ball. His defense kept letting the Cowboys answer. Utah coach Morgan Scalley just endured a similarly frantic escape at Colorado, where his defenders conceded three long second-half touchdown drives. Saturday night at Rice-Eccles Stadium brings together two offenses equipped to make those coverage failures hurt again. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Utah Utes and the Houston Cougars.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Utah vs. Houston prediction, preview
Weigman has been magnificent. Against Oklahoma State, he finished touchdown drives of 75, 75, 75 and 85 yards, finding receiver Amare Thomas seven times for 126 yards and two scores. Wideout Trent Walker caught seven for 104. Utah has held opposing quarterbacks to 49.3% completions this season, so Weigman faces coverage capable of ruining an afternoon. Kansas nevertheless threw for 333 yards against the Utes, and Colorado followed with 256. Their recent opponents have found catches despite that excellent season-long defense.
Houston coach Willie Fritz has the protection to let Weigman search for them. The Cougars have allowed only seven sacks through seven games. Tight end Patrick Overmyer caught eight passes and four touchdowns at Kansas State, while running backs Makhi Hughes and Re’Shaun Sanford II helped Houston rush for 233 yards. Utah has allowed just 3.3 yards per carry this season. Fritz should anticipate tougher handoffs, then return to the receivers his line has given Weigman time to find.
Houston also converted all three fourth-down attempts in each of its past two games. Scalley needs his defense to finish after it forces a difficult down. Weigman has recently been ruthless about taking another opportunity.
Utes quarterback Devon Dampier gets his own inviting passing matchup. Houston let Oklahoma State throw for 365 yards, including touchdown drives covering 90 and 96. Dampier found receiver Braden Pegan eight times for 86 yards and two touchdowns at Colorado; wideout Creed Whittemore added 88 on three catches. Dampier can return to Pegan through a long drive, with Whittemore capable of breaking off a much bigger catch.
Houston vs. Utah pick, best bet
Utah offensive coordinator Kevin McGiven also uses quarterback Byrd Ficklin in rushing and receiving packages alongside Dampier. Running back Wayshawn Parker rushed for 174 yards and caught five passes for 65 at Iowa State. Houston remains without nose guard De’Marion Thomas, with defensive linemen Myles Parker and Quindario Lee expected to fill in. McGiven has several runners to test that replacement interior.
Utah loses starting left guard Kelvin Obot, but replacement guard Solatoa Moea’i started the first three games and played after Obot left at Colorado. Dampier still threw two interceptions last week, and Houston has allowed only 3.2 yards per rush this season. Both defenses can stop drives, particularly when the quarterbacks force throws after the backs get caught.
With mild, dry conditions forecast for the late kickoff, Weigman’s protection and Dampier’s receiving options deserve the greater weight. I expect them to make this another demanding night for the defenses, well beyond 56.5.
Best bet: Over 56.5 (-110).
Projected score: Utah 34, Houston 31.
Best Bet: Utah vs. Houston o56.5 total points scored (-110)
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