I love autumn a little past its peak, after the maples have spent themselves and the leaves begin to curl at the edges. The first frosts silver the grass. We pull the heavier coat from the closet, discover something there in the pocket—a receipt, a totem, a straw wrapper from a far-away café. A reminder of how it can all get away from us, much like this October. Autumn’s crashed over us in its full wave, now, with a tide of woodsmoke, early darkness, and tired leaves withering on branches. Those trees looked immortal a fortnight ago. A person could get sentimental. A person could also spend the entire afternoon watching college football, which has always struck me as a perfectly healthy—at the very least, fine enough—way to handle the seasons’ ceaseless turning.
Below is my full betting slip for today, with some notes on what I’d risk, some quick analyses—I have full previews of all of these publishing throughout the day for more in-depth breakdowns and matchup analysis. This is both a comprehensive round-up and an at-a-glance preview. Because why just be one thing when you can be both?
Follow my handle @dansby_edits for all preseason and fantasy draft kit content—as well as plenty of NFL betting goodies—all season long.
Dan Johnson’s full Week 8 College Football betslip
12:00 p.m.
West Virginia at TCU
Best bet: West Virginia +10.5 (-108) | Stake: 1U
West Virginia quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. answered Cincinnati’s crowded front with a magnificent 464 passing yards. Running back Cam Cook managed only 40 yards on 15 carries, yet Hawkins repeatedly threw the Mountaineers downfield. TCU should make him work much harder. The Horned Frogs have allowed a stingy 5.9 yards per pass attempt through six games.
Their own quarterback, Jaden Craig, gets to attack a dreadful West Virginia secondary through receivers Jordan Dwyer and Ed Small, who gained 150 and 91 receiving yards at Baylor. I expect TCU to win through those catches. TCU managed only 33 net rushing yards last week, though, and the Horned Frogs still have to turn their promising possessions into touchdowns. Hawkins has just carried West Virginia through an afternoon when Cook could barely get going. I’ll take the 10.5.
Projected score: TCU 31, West Virginia 24.
Texas Tech at Cincinnati
Best bet: Over 56.5 (-115) | Stake: 1U
Cincinnati’s defenders have been reaching third down and then letting the afternoon unravel. Against Arizona, they conceded 238 rushing yards and nine conversions on 14 third downs. Texas Tech running back J’Koby Williams arrives after shredding Arizona State for 165 yards on 11 carries, with quarterback Will Hammond throwing to receiver Kenny Johnson when defenders crowd the run.
Hammond enjoyed short fields last week, although he previously finished touchdown drives of 75, 80, 75 and 87 yards against Houston. Cincinnati quarterback JC French IV will have to answer through the air against Tech defenders allowing just 2.9 yards per rush this season. Running back Cole Tabb caught passes for 51 yards at West Virginia, and receiver Malachi Henry caught a 69-yarder. French threw for 389 yards and three touchdowns that afternoon. Cincinnati should need another lively passing performance from him.
Projected score: Texas Tech 38, Cincinnati 24.
3:00 p.m.
Oregon at Illinois
Best bet: Under 49.5 (-108) | Stake: 1U
Illinois freshman quarterback Michael Clayton II was wonderfully composed at Michigan State, completing six of eight throws for 88 yards and two touchdowns. He now has to string completions together against Oregon for an entire afternoon. The Ducks held Nebraska to 242 yards after conceding only 17 points against UCLA, despite turning the ball over seven times themselves.
Oregon expects quarterback Dylan Raiola to start while quarterback Dante Moore and receiver Evan Stewart remain out. Raiola earned his chance by finishing the winning 20-play touchdown drive against Nebraska. Tight end Jamari Johnson should help him attack Illinois defenders allowing 8.1 yards per pass attempt, though Raiola also completed a wretched six of 19 against UCLA. Raiola should punish more of Illinois’ coverage failures. Clayton faces the harder work, particularly after Oregon’s front—allowing just 3.3 yards per rush this season—puts the freshman into passing downs.
Projected score: Oregon 24, Illinois 17.
3:30 p.m.
Michigan State at UCLA
Best bet: Under 43.5 (-108) | Stake: 1U
Michigan State may need freshman quarterback Kayd Coffman to throw for first downs against UCLA. Starting quarterback Alessio Milivojevic and running back Jaziun Patterson remain questionable, while backup quarterback Cam Fancher is out. The Bruins have allowed only 3.0 yards per rush this season. Even with Milivojevic and Patterson back, the Spartans face much fiercer resistance than Illinois and Northwestern offered.
UCLA quarterback Ty Dieffenbach threw for an excellent 264 yards against Wisconsin in his first FBS start, but the Bruins asked an awful lot of him. They converted 13 of 20 third downs while running back Wayne Knight scraped out 23 yards on 13 carries. UCLA finished with 17 points despite touchdown marches of 91 and 89 yards. Michigan State’s depleted corners should concede more catches; Dieffenbach still has to sustain those long possessions with little recent help from Knight.
Projected score: UCLA 27, Michigan State 13.
Iowa at Minnesota
Best bet: Iowa -7 (-108) | Stake: 1U
Iowa should make Minnesota tackle running back Kamari Moulton all afternoon after he romped for 208 yards at Washington. Minnesota just let Purdue rush for 305. The Gophers defended Michigan and Washington much more stubbornly, but Iowa quarterback Jeremy Hecklinski has just finished long scoring drives through receiver Reece Vander Zee and tight end DJ Vonnahme. He threw three touchdowns without an interception in his first start.
Minnesota quarterback Drake Lindsey should complete throws against Iowa after Washington passed for 320 yards. His backs have been struggling miserably, though. Minnesota managed 27 net rushing yards at Purdue; the Hawkeyes have allowed a miserly 2.5 yards per carry through six games. Back home and rested for Floyd of Rosedale, Lindsey should have his moments. Iowa’s rush should also find him on plenty of obvious passing downs.
Projected score: Iowa 27, Minnesota 17.
Oklahoma at Mississippi State
Best bet: Under 46.5 (-112) | Stake: 1U
Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer keeps having to throw his way out of a failing running game. The Sooners have averaged a miserable 2.8 yards per rush through six games, and replacement left tackle Ryan Fodje is out. Mateer threw three interceptions against Kentucky. Against a Mississippi State front allowing just 3.5 yards per carry this season, Mateer should face another afternoon of difficult passing downs.
Bulldogs quarterback Kamario Taylor remains questionable despite doing more in practice after a foot injury. He can stretch a defense—Missouri endured his 360-yard passing afternoon—but his mobility remains unresolved. Oklahoma has allowed only 20 conversions on 78 third downs this season. Backup quarterback Parker Puckett managed just 121 passing yards at LSU. Taylor would give Mississippi State far more hope of scoring. Mateer still has to labor through possessions behind Oklahoma’s damaged line.
Projected score: Oklahoma 23, Mississippi State 20.
BYU at UCF
Best bet: BYU -7 (-105) | Stake: 1U
BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier has begun dragging this offense through the loss of running back LJ Martin. He threw for 329 yards against Iowa State while the replacement backs struggled, then ran for two touchdowns against Notre Dame. UCF can contest the handoffs after holding TCU to 33 net rushing yards. Bachmeier has already answered that demand through his receivers and his own running.
UCF expects quarterback Keyone Jenkins to start again after throwing four touchdowns at Oklahoma State, repeatedly finding receiver Josh Derry and tight end Caden Piening. BYU just held Iowa State to 98 passing yards, though. With running back Taevion Swint and right guard Owen Spell out, Jenkins faces much harder work stringing completions together. BYU also lists guard Kyle Sfarcioc questionable, but Bachmeier has established targets in tight end Walker Lyons and receiver Legend Glasker when his backs get stopped.
Projected score: BYU 27, UCF 17.
6:00 p.m.
Boise State at Washington State
Best bet: Over 53.5 (-108) | Stake: 1U
Boise State running backs Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines rushed for 150 and 120 yards at Fresno State, with Riley adding 64 receiving yards. Washington State just let Oregon State rush for 208 and throw for 347. Broncos quarterback Maddux Madsen can make this defense chase his backs, then return to Riley as a receiver when the Cougars contest a handoff.
Washington State quarterback Owen Eshelman threw for 289 yards and ran for 136 in his first start. He did much of that work chasing Oregon State’s large lead, although the Cougars finished four touchdown drives covering at least 75 yards. Boise has conceded an alarming 8.7 yards per pass attempt through six games. Eshelman faces tougher third-down defense, with receiver Darrius Clemons doubtful and left tackle Ashton Tripp questionable. Boise ought to score in bunches, and Eshelman has already hauled this offense downfield while trailing.
Projected score: Boise State 35, Washington State 24.
7:30 p.m.
Vanderbilt at Kentucky
Best bet: Vanderbilt +10.5 (-110) | Stake: 1U
Vanderbilt quarterback Jared Curtis can take this offense the length of the field. Against Arkansas, he finished touchdown drives of 76, 71 and 67 yards, throwing to receivers Junior Sherrill and Ja’Cory Thomas. He also threw two interceptions after throwing two against Ole Miss. Curtis has been exhilarating and exasperating in almost equal measure.
Kentucky should give him chances to recover. The Wildcats have let opponents convert 49 of 104 third downs this season and allowed Oklahoma to gain 346 yards despite intercepting four passes as a team. Kentucky quarterback Kenny Minchey has been more careful, with tight end Willie Rodriguez catching his throws and running back CJ Baxter returning after missing Oklahoma. I expect the Wildcats to win. At +10.5, though, Curtis gets some room for his mistakes against defenders still struggling to get off the field.
Projected score: Kentucky 30, Vanderbilt 24.
Iowa State at Arizona
Best bet: Arizona -9.5 (-115) | Stake: 2U
Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita has been marvelous with his replacement receivers. Wideout Isaiah Mizell caught six passes for 183 yards at West Virginia, while fellow wideout Brandon Phelps added 88. Iowa State just let BYU throw for 329 yards. Fifita should reach Mizell and Phelps repeatedly.
The Cyclones can make Arizona chase running back Aiden Flora after West Virginia rushed for 303 yards against the Wildcats. Flora gained 86 yards on 17 carries at BYU, though, while Iowa State scored ten points. Quarterback Jaylen Raynor squeezed a paltry 98 passing yards from 29 attempts. Arizona previously held Cincinnati to 74 rushing yards; when the Wildcats stop Flora early, Raynor has to complete the next difficult throw. Both teams return from their bye, but Fifita has been reaching receivers downfield while Raynor’s offense has struggled to turn competent rushing into scoring. Arizona gets 2U.
Projected score: Arizona 34, Iowa State 20.
Utah State at Texas State
Best bet: Texas State -13.5 (-112) | Stake: 1U
Texas State quarterback Brad Jackson and running back Torrance Burgess Jr. ran roughshod over Colorado State, rushing for 181 and 224 yards with seven touchdowns between them. Utah State should tackle better. Jackson threw for 372 yards at San Diego State while the Bobcats managed only 3.3 yards per rush. Receiver Beau Sparks caught ten passes for 153.
Jackson also threw two interceptions that afternoon. Aggies linebacker Asher Cunningham just forced two fumbles against Washington State that preceded short touchdown drives; the Bobcats cannot afford to offer him the same chances. Utah State quarterback Grady Brosterhous should find receiver Eli Wood against a defense with only six sacks through six games. He completed just 11 of 26 throws against Washington State, though. Jackson has demonstrated how to sustain scoring when his backs struggle. Brosterhous has recently needed far more help from his defense.
Projected score: Texas State 38, Utah State 20.
8:00 p.m.
UTSA at Tulane
Best bet: UTSA -3 (-102) | Stake: 1U
Tulane sacked Memphis seven times and forced six turnovers amidst a hefty 488-yard afternoon for the Tigers. Defensive tackle Ed Smith IV forced two fumbles after returning from injury. UTSA guard Ben Rios played through an injured foot against Navy, so Roadrunners quarterback Owen McCown should expect far less comfort.
McCown was relentless against Navy. He finished four touchdown drives covering at least 75 yards through receivers David Amador II and DJ Allen Jr. and running back A’Marion Peterson, who caught the winning 41-yard score. UTSA has committed only three turnovers through seven games. Tulane quarterback Trace Johnson finished a late 75-yard scoring drive against Memphis, but the Green Wave converted only four of 16 third downs. I’m backing McCown to earn the extra score.
Projected score: UTSA 28, Tulane 21.
10:00 p.m.
North Dakota State at New Mexico
Best bet: Under 40.5 (-108) | Stake: 1U
New Mexico quarterback Toa Fa’avae ran for 77 yards at Hawaii but threw for just 59, with two interceptions. North Dakota State has allowed a stingy 3.3 yards per rush and 5.6 per pass attempt this season. Fa’avae should have to complete difficult throws when the Bison stop his runners.
Air Force did score 32 against North Dakota State, and Fa’avae can still hurt them on foot. Bison safety Darius Givance is out, too. New Mexico loses quarterback James Laubstein’s short-yardage work, although Bison coach Tim Polasek expects another runner in that package. The Lobos’ own front has allowed only 3.0 yards per carry. Bison quarterback Nathan Hayes came apart at UNLV, throwing three interceptions while his offense scored seven points. Polasek expects running back DJ Scott to return, but Hayes still has to throw for first downs against a defense capable of squeezing those handoffs.
Projected score: New Mexico 20, North Dakota State 16.
10:15 p.m.
Houston at Utah
Best bet: Over 56.5 (-115) | Stake: 2U
Houston quarterback Conner Weigman has been magnificent. Against Oklahoma State, he threw five touchdowns and finished scoring drives of 75, 75, 75 and 85 yards. The Cougars have allowed only seven sacks through seven games, and Weigman has been ruthless about finding receivers Amare Thomas and Trent Walker. Utah has held opponents to 49.3% completions this season, yet Kansas passed for 333 yards against the Utes and Colorado followed with 256.
Utes quarterback Devon Dampier found receiver Braden Pegan for two touchdowns at Colorado. Houston just allowed Oklahoma State to throw for 365 yards, and running back Wayshawn Parker gets to attack a front missing nose guard De’Marion Thomas. Utah loses left guard Kelvin Obot, although replacement guard Solatoa Moea’i has already started three games. Weigman and Dampier should reach their receivers even when the backs get stopped. I’m backing them for 2U.
Projected score: Utah 34, Houston 31.
