Ole Miss heads to Austin on Saturday 10/24/26 for a primetime showdown against Texas at 7:30pm ET. Texas is down to a 3-point home favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. The total is set at 54.5. Here’s my prediction and best bet for the matchup.
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| Spread | Texas -3 |
| Moneyline | Texas -155/Ole Miss +130 |
| Total | 54.5 |
| Prediction | Ole Miss 31 – Texas 27 |
| Best Bet | Ole Miss Team Total OVER 24.5 |
Ole Miss vs. Texas prediction
The Rebels’ have one loss so far in Gainesville, and the schedule is shaping up to have College Football Playoff potential if they can finish strong. That’s going to involve getting a win in Austin as an underdog. But after sitting No. 1 in the AP Poll just two weeks ago, the Longhorns have played uninspired football out of their bye.
Texas has lost to unranked opponents in consecutive weeks, first in the Red River Rivalry to a struggling Oklahoma team, and then on its home field to Florida. It felt like the Longhorns were in control of both games, but spiraled out of control in the second half. It’s been so bad that Arch Manning lost some of his first team reps in practice this week to the backup QB — freshman KJ Lacey.
I’ve lost faith in both Manning and Steve Sarkisian, which has me leaning to Ole Miss in the game. A massive QB advantage in favor of Trinidad Chambliss also doesn’t hurt. What has me concerned is if Manning gets off to a bad start and Lacy comes in and sparks the team. Think of Michigan as the blueprint for this — after being shutout in the first half at home to Penn State last week, Bryce Underwood was benched. Tommy Carr came in and led the offense to 21 points and a comeback victory. That type of situation could be lurking in Austin on Saturday night.
So, while in this situation I would join the public on one of the most popular sides of the day in Ole Miss, I’ve found a different way to back the Rebs. Ole Miss has now scored 27 or more points in 15 straight games, including 30 or more in 13 of those games, per Major Wager. This offense can score against elite defenses, including 32 against LSU this season, 27 and 39 points in the CFP against Miami and Georgia, along with 35 against Georgia and 34 against Oklahoma in the regular season in 2025.
I trust Chambliss to score on Texas. And the Longhorns have been slipping the last couple of weeks in SEC play. Yes, the Sooners got some help on defense and special teams, but both they and the Gators managed 27 points the last two weeks against Texas. Defense is also part of the equation here, as Manning is prone to make mistakes, and Ole Miss will be ready.
Taking the points with the Rebs is very tempting, but also very public. I’ll be a little bit different and simply back Chambliss and company to put up points.
Ole Miss vs. Texas best bet
CFB Pick: Ole Miss Team Total OVER 24.5 (-115)
For all of my college football best bets this week, check out my CFB cheat sheet on DraftKings Network.
For easy access to quick CFB picks, join the CFB Committee Betting Group on DraftKings Sports.
