Helping to close down the eight-game NBA slate, the New Orleans Pelicans will face off with the Denver Nuggets at Ball Arena on Saturday.
Both of these teams are searching for their first victory of the season. The Nuggets dropped their season-opening matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder, while the Pelicans fell short against the Indiana Pacers and Utah Jazz to start the year. These teams will face off again on Wednesday, marking two matchups in their first four games of the season against these Western Conference opponents.
Looking at the odds for Saturday’s matchup, the Nuggets enter as 11.5-point favorites with the total set at 239.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Pelicans vs. Nuggets Preview
The New Orleans Pelicans finished last season with a 26-56 record, earning the 11th seed in the Western Conference. The organization elected to run it back with much of its core, hoping for better injury luck and continued development from its young talent to help the team take another step forward. Through the first two games, New Orleans has fallen short by scores of 123-120 against the Pacers in the season opener and 120-119 against the Jazz last night. The Pelicans have gone 1-1 against the spread and 1-1 on game totals thus far.
Zion Williamson headlines the production with 22.5 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 2.5 assists per game through the first two contests. Dejounte Murray adds 19.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 6.5 assists per game, while Saddiq Bey will look to build off his 20-point outing in the previous game and 16.5-point average overall. Derik Queen and Trey Murphy III are also averaging double figures, while Jeremiah Fears, Jordan Poole, and Bennedict Mathurin have played notable roles. Yves Missi has been ruled out of tonight’s matchup with a lower-leg contusion.
Through the first two games, the Pelicans rank ninth in the NBA in scoring, averaging 119.5 points per game. They rank eighth in offensive rating but have struggled with their three-point volume and rank 27th in assists per game. Defensively, New Orleans ranks 24th in opponent points allowed, conceding 121.5 points per game. The Pelicans also rank 22nd in defensive rating and 29th in opponent field-goal percentage.
The Denver Nuggets finished last season as the third seed in the Western Conference with a 54-28 record. They moved on from Peyton Watson during the offseason and overhauled their bench unit, with DeMar DeRozan serving as their most notable addition. Denver was tested right out of the gates this season with a difficult matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder on Thursday. The Nuggets fell 96-84, failing to cover the 8.5-point spread, while the game total finished under 233.5 points.
Nikola Jokic struggled greatly in the season opener, finishing with 13 points, seven rebounds, and five assists, shooting 5-for-19 from the field and 1-for-7 from beyond the three-point arc. Aaron Gordon led the team with 20 points and six rebounds, while DeMar DeRozan was the only other player to finish in double figures, adding 13 points. Jamal Murray also struggled to find his form, finishing with six points, 10 rebounds, and three assists on 2-for-11 shooting from the field while missing his lone three-point attempt. Denver will also need more from Cam Johnson, who attempted just three shots before leaving the game with an ankle sprain. Johnson will be sidelined tonight, while Spencer Jones and Julian Strawther will also miss the matchup.
David Adelman’s group currently ranks 29th in the league in scoring, 29th in offensive rating, 27th in team field-goal percentage, and 22nd in three-point percentage. Defensively, the Nuggets rank second in opponent points allowed, seventh in defensive rating, and second in opponent field-goal percentage. One game is far too small a sample size to draw firm conclusions from these metrics, but Denver will need to find its offensive rhythm to resemble the high-powered unit they expect to be.
Pelicans vs. Nuggets Pick, Best Bet
It was a frustrating start to the season for the Nuggets, and this is an ideal get-right spot for them to take full advantage of. New Orleans is playing on the second night of a back-to-back, and the absence of Yves Missi further limits its frontcourt options. This is especially problematic against a Jokic-led Nuggets team that will be motivated to respond following its disappointing season-opening loss.
Expect the Nuggets to find their offensive form against a Pelicans team that finished last season ranked 24th in opponent points allowed and 25th in defensive rating. New Orleans has allowed at least 120 points in both games to start the year, and Denver has the potential to field one of the league’s most dynamic offenses when Jokic is operating at his best. Ivica Zubac pulled down 15 rebounds against New Orleans in the Pacers’ season-opening win, and Jokic can look to exploit similar opportunities on the glass after leading the NBA in rebounding last season. His ability to contribute as a scorer and playmaker only adds to the challenge for the Pelicans.
There is some encouraging young talent on this New Orleans roster, but several players are being asked to handle significant roles while still developing their games. The team has shown some fight through its first two contests, but it has struggled to close out games and establish consistency across the roster. Expect the difference in experience between these teams to become evident as the game progresses, with Denver looking to take control early. The Nuggets’ rest advantage over a Pelicans team playing on consecutive nights only strengthens the case for the home side. Don’t shy away from the 11.5-point spread, and expect Denver to win comfortably.
Best Bet: Denver Nuggets -11.5 (-105)
In addition, I am backing Nikola Jokic to record over 50.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists as one of my best bets in my top NBA player prop bets on Saturday.
