Indianapolis’ collapse against Tennessee cost general manager Chris Ballard his job. Shane Steichen now takes an offense that allowed six sacks into Minnesota after squandering a 13–0 halftime lead. Jonathan Taylor still looks like himself: 94 rushing yards and 57 receiving, despite the fumble that started the collapse. Minnesota returns from its bye at a curious 5–0. Brian Flores’ defense has tormented quarterbacks while the offense has limped through injuries. With several offensive starters nearing returns, Kevin O’Connell should finally have his healthiest group in weeks—and an opportunity to turn more of Brian Flores’s magnificent defensive work into comfortable wins. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the Minnesota Vikings and the Indianapolis Colts.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Vikings vs. Colts prediction, preview
Steichen has beaten before the sort of aggressive pressure he’s like to see from Flores, so at least there’s that. Daniel Jones completed seven of ten passes for 89 yards against Kansas City’s Week 2 blitzes; twice, Taylor picked up a rusher while Jones threw hot to Josh Downs for third-down conversions against seven-man rushes. Expect those quick throws again, with Keenan Allen another outlet after his eight-catch, 82-yard afternoon against Tennessee. But tight end Tyler Warren and guard Matt Goncalves missed Wednesday’s practice. Warren capped the first of those Kansas City drives with a play-action touchdown.
Flores has Minnesota blitzing on 66.5% of dropbacks, with veteran defenders authorized to change the calls on the field. Jones averages 5.2 yards per attempt against blitzes, and last week Tennessee intercepted him on a standard Cover 2 exchange. Flores blitzed on 23 of 27 dropbacks in the Vikings’ game against the Saints before the bye. Tyler Shough threw quickly to avoid sacks; six of the Saints’ nine possessions nevertheless yielded five or fewer yards. It’s cooking over there right now in the mad Flores lab.
On the season, and across two quarterbacks, Minnesota ranks 29th in total offensive EPA and has scored touchdowns on 50% of red-zone visits. They face third down on a league-high 65% of their drives; Indianapolis allows conversions on only 30.4%, fourth-best. Kevin O’Connell leaned on Aaron Jones for 25 carries and 113 yards in New Orleans; Kyler Murray kept punishing coverage tilted toward Justin Jefferson, at one point tearing off 18 yards to convert third-and-ten. Indianapolis has struggled with that dilemma before. Its Week 1 blitzes pressured Lamar Jackson on seven of 14 attempts, but he still completed eight of 11 passes against them for 147 yards. Murray’s legs should be more a factor here than we’ve yet seen from him in purple.
Against a vulnerable Saints defense, Murray completed 19 of 20 throws at ten yards or less for 119 yards and hit three of four attempts at least 20 yards downfield for 70; Minnesota’s offense converted nine of 18 third downs. Indianapolis allows 6.0 yards per play, 28th, so I expect O’Connell to attack early with those quick throws, working around the Colts’ better third-down defense while Jones challenges their 4.8 yards allowed per carry. Jordan Mason (thumb) is practicing this week, too, so it’s possible O’Connell finds something new in the wholesale backfield rotation he envisioned coming into the regular season.
Colts vs. Vikings pick, best bet
Christian Darrisaw, T.J. Hockenson, and Jordan Addison also practiced fully Wednesday, though the first two still have concussion clearance to complete. Murray has shared the field with Jefferson, Addison, and Hockenson for only nine passing plays this season. Hockenson caught all 13 targets against Miami before his early concussion exit against New Orleans. His return would restore a receiver Murray has already trusted to move the sticks, and pull underneath coverages so as to get Jefferson and Addison loose.
Taylor and some clutch plays to Allen, Downs should move Indianapolis into scoring range, but Minnesota allows touchdowns on only 25% of red-zone visits and conversions on 22.2% of third downs. I expect more Spencer Shrader field goals than Colts touchdowns, as has been typical this season. Minnesota also leads the NFL in special-teams EPA, facing a punt unit that just allowed a long return and a blocked-punt touchdown. Those returns and Flores’ passing-down stops should give Murray shorter fields against a defense allowing touchdowns on 61.1% of red-zone visits. Will Reichard turned 33- and 31-yard drives into field goals from 54 and 55 in New Orleans; he gets to kick indoors again Sunday. I’ll lay the 5.5. Skol.
Best bet: Vikings -5.5 (-112).
Projected score: Vikings 23, Colts 16.
