Vanderbilt quarterback Jared Curtis is beginning to make some exhilarating throws, followed too often by a dreadful one. He threw two interceptions against Arkansas after throwing two against Ole Miss. Kentucky quarterback Kenny Minchey has been far more careful during the Wildcats’ rise, but his defense has continued letting opponents march. Curtis has enough receiving help to make Saturday at Kroger Field competitive if he finishes more of those possessions. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Kentucky Wildcats and the Vanderbilt Commodores.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
For easy access to tail my CFB picks swiftly, click here to join the CFB Committee Betting Group on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Kentucky vs. Vandy prediction, preview
Against Arkansas, Curtis found receiver Junior Sherrill eight times for 99 yards and wideout Ja’Cory Thomas three times for 57. Vanderbilt scored after driving 76, 71 and 67 yards. Curtis also threw an interception after another 63-yard march. He can take this offense the length of the field; coach Clark Lea needs him to stop giving away the ball after doing the difficult work.
Kentucky has allowed opponents to convert 49 of 104 third downs this season. Oklahoma gained 346 yards last week despite throwing four interceptions as a team, and LSU passed for 316 the previous Saturday. Curtis should find chances to extend drives through Sherrill and Thomas. Wildcats linebacker Sam Greene is now out. Fellow linebacker Tavion Wallace has been cleared to return after missing three games, although Kentucky has yet to establish his normal workload.
Lea can also persist with running backs Sedrick Alexander and Makhilyn Young, who gained 57 yards on ten attempts and 45 on nine against Arkansas. Kentucky held Oklahoma to 76 net rushing yards, so I expect the Wildcats to contest those runs more fiercely. The Commodores may have to return to Sherrill and Thomas for their first downs.
Minchey has a dependable finishing target in tight end Willie Rodriguez, who caught five passes and both Kentucky offensive touchdowns at Oklahoma. Receiver Kenny Darby caught five more. With wideout Nic Anderson now ruled out, those two should carry substantial responsibility again. Vanderbilt let Arkansas complete 21 of 31 passes for 251 yards, after Georgia completed 25 of 32 earlier this month. Minchey should find enough catches to sustain the Wildcats.
Vandy vs. Kentucky pick, best bet
Kentucky coach Will Stein also gets running back CJ Baxter back after he missed Oklahoma. Baxter ran for 123 yards against LSU, although he gained 77 on one touchdown burst. Kentucky managed only 72 net rushing yards without him last week. Vanderbilt conceded 187 rushing yards to Arkansas; Baxter gives Stein another way to break a possession open when Minchey’s receivers encounter tighter coverage.
Kentucky should win through that cleaner passing and renewed rushing support. But the Wildcats scored only twice on offense at Oklahoma, with their defense adding the decisive touchdown. Curtis has already finished long drives against Arkansas, and Kentucky continues conceding catches after putting opponents into third down. His interceptions make an outright Vanderbilt call difficult. At +10.5, I can accept some of that carelessness while backing him to make Kentucky earn another full fourth quarter.
Best bet: Vanderbilt +10.5 (-110).
Projected score: Kentucky 30, Vanderbilt 24.
Best Bet: Vanderbilt +10.5 (-110) at Kentucky
For easy access to tail my CFB picks swiftly, click here to join the CFB Committee Betting Group on DraftKings Sportsbook.
