Oregon coach Dan Lanning has spent two weeks changing quarterbacks and watching his offense make almost every first down exhausting. Ducks quarterback Dante Moore remains out with a concussion, and receiver Evan Stewart remains out, too. Illinois comes off its bye preparing freshman quarterback Michael Clayton II after quarterback Katin Houser broke his hand. Both coaches have experienced receivers; somebody still has to get them the ball. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Illinois Fighting Illini and the Oregon Ducks.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Illinois vs. Oregon prediction, preview
Clayton was wonderfully composed at Michigan State, completing six of eight passes for 88 yards and two touchdowns. Receiver Hudson Clement caught his 25-yard touchdown on the first play of overtime. Illinois coach Bret Bielema can also feature wideout Collin Dixon, who caught ten passes for 116 yards against Purdue. Clayton has help. Clayton now has to run the offense for an entire afternoon against defenders who have repeatedly rescued Oregon’s sputtering attack.
Oregon turned the ball over seven times against UCLA and still allowed only 17 points, holding the Bruins to four conversions on 16 third downs. Nebraska managed 242 yards last week. Clayton will have to recognize coverage and complete throws after Oregon contests the handoffs; the Ducks have allowed just 3.3 yards per rush this season. Clement’s overtime touchdown was encouraging, but Illinois has yet to demonstrate a full game of that execution with Clayton directing it.
Illini running back Aidan Laughery can help him. Laughery ran for 113 yards at Ohio State, then worked for 49 against Purdue and 70 at Michigan State. Bielema should continue handing him the ball. When Oregon stops Laughery, Dixon and Clement will have to win catches for the freshman. I expect Illinois to score, but Clayton should spend enough possessions facing difficult conversions to send out the kicking units repeatedly.
Oregon vs. Illinois pick, best bet
Lanning has his own enticing matchup against an Illinois defense allowing 8.1 yards per pass attempt. Oregon quarterback Dylan Raiola threw for 289 yards after replacing Moore at USC, finding tight end Jamari Johnson seven times for 119. Receiver Dakorien Moore adds another threat. Illinois has to cover players who can hurt them downfield, and Raiola has already shown he can reach them.
Raiola is now expected to start after replacing fellow quarterback Brock Thomas, who managed 54 passing yards against Nebraska. Raiola earned that chance by finishing the winning 20-play touchdown drive. He also completed a dreadful six of 19 throws against UCLA. Oregon converted three of 17 third downs last week; Raiola improved the offense late, but Lanning still needs steadier execution across an entire game. Stewart’s absence removes another receiving answer.
Illinois returns rested to Gies Memorial Stadium for Military Appreciation, while Oregon travels east after that laborious escape. The Ducks’ defense should win them the game. Raiola should improve against Illinois’ vulnerable coverage, but Clayton faces much harder work earning his share of a shootout. I’ll play under 49.5, even allowing Raiola to punish some of Illinois’ coverage failures.
Best bet: Under 49.5 (-105).
Projected score: Oregon 24, Illinois 17.
Best Bet: Illinois vs. Oregon u49.5 total points scored (-105)
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