Memphis HC Charles Huff ought to be furious after last week’s disasterclass. His Tigers turned the ball over six times amidst a hefty 488-yard night at Tulane, and the team returned home for this game with just seventeen points to show for all that marching. East Carolina arrives at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium tonight after a letdown, as well: they squandered a 14–0 lead at UAB, and their offense disappeared for most of the evening. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Memphis Tigers and the East Carolina Pirates.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Memphis vs. ECU prediction, preview
TJ Engleman Jr. has been carrying a dreadful passing game through three consecutive 100-yard rushing performances. He ground out 104 yards on 26 carries at UAB, helping East Carolina march 75 yards for their opening touchdown. Memphis has allowed a juicy 4.7 yards per carry through seven game. Engleman should get fed, and the Pirates should return to the short throws which Emory Williams completed to receivers Ray Ray Joseph Jr. and Jason Dickerson so often, including the opening drive, last game. Joseph’s work in space has earned coach Blake Harrell’s praise.
UAB eventually squeezed the Pirates’ running game last week, though, and, notably, Emory Williams failed to stretch the field when East Carolina needed an answer. Harrell said his staff called downfield shots with extra protection; it was just that receivers struggled to separate, protection broke down, and Williams sometimes held the ball too long. Williams finished with a miserable 126 passing yards on 27 attempts; ECU scraped together three points over their final ten possessions. Memphis defensive coordinator Lance Guidry can challenge those receivers with press coverage and make Williams throw beyond the congested underneath areas. His defense has permitted a stingy 29 conversions on 92 third downs this season. It’d take a fairly wild leap in maturity for me to believe Williams can all the sudden sling it tonight, which I believe he’d need to.
Memphis receiver Stonka Burnside can make East Carolina pay dearly for committing defenders to the run. He turned a crossing throw into a spectacular 76-yard touchdown at Tulane; quarterback Marcus Stokes threw for 306 yards through a wretched night of protection. With Pirates safety DeMarius Hines lost for the season, Memphis offensive coordinator Kevin Decker has good reason to attack his replacements. Decker’s wide formations and run-pass options stretch a defense horizontally; Burnside threatens the space deeper. That combination should carry Memphis into scoring range regularly.
ECU vs. Memphis pick, best bet
Kieran Davis gets to attack the blockers who let Tulane sack Stokes five times before halftime, twice stripping him. The ECU defensive end spearheads a relentless front with 18 sacks through six games. UAB settled for three field goals until finally cracking ECU in the last minute. Jaylin Carter ran admirably at Tulane, gaining 135 yards on 23 carries, but East Carolina allows a stubborn 3.18 yards per rush. Carter’s early carries should encounter enough resistance to put Stokes into passing downs where the protection has to hold.
Memphis has been maddeningly wasteful near the goal line. The Tigers have finished just 17 of 32 red-zone visits with touchdowns this season; all five second-half possessions at Tulane reached that area, and only one scored. I expect Burnside’s explosiveness and Carter’s running to take Memphis into the low thirties. ECU’s front should spoil enough possessions to contain that total, while Williams’ difficulty answering defensive adjustments leaves the Pirates laboring toward seventeen.
Best bet: Under 54.5 (-112).
Projected score: Memphis 31, East Carolina 17.
Best Bet: Memphis vs. ECU u54.5 total points scored (-110)
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