It’s a bit of a gross one, but an AFC South battle in the witching hour of the Week 6 slate could have some important implications for both teams involved. The Tennessee Titans are one of just three winless teams and are working to evaluate whether their former No. 1 pick is truly their quarterback of the future. The Indianapolis Colts have a pair of wins, but they haven’t looked like a postseason-caliber squad by any means and are weathering some injuries, too.
Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET in Indianapolis. Here’s a preview, prediction and pick for Titans vs. Colts in NFL Week 6.
Titans vs. Colts prediction, preview
The Titans cleaned house this past offseason and hired Robert Saleh as the franchise’s next head coach, also bringing in Brian Daboll as offensive coordinator. The idea was that they could change the culture of this team and help Cam Ward develop at quarterback, especially after spending some cash in free agency and adding a first-round wideout in Carnell Tate. The rookie has begun to come online over the last few weeks and leads the team with 274 receiving yards, and to be fair, veteran halfback Tony Pollard has 273 rushing yards under his belt with a touchdown. There are very few other positives to draw from the first five weeks, though. Tennessee is 0-5 and ranks among the NFL’s worst offenses, falling 31st in EPA/play and dead last in scoring with just 11.6 PPG. The Titans have scored fewer than 20 points in four of their five outings and Ward has looked abysmal, throwing for only 896 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions – he slots in at 34th among 36 qualifying quarterbacks this season in EPA/dropback. The defense has looked respectable at ninth in points allowed while grading out around the league average against the run, but it’s obviously not enough to overcome this underwhelming offense.
On the opposite sideline, the Colts have underperformed as well, though not to the same extent. They’re just 2-3, though they narrowly lost to a very strong Chiefs squad back in Week 2 and could realistically have an additional win under their belts. The best thing they have going for them is the run game, which ranks first in EPA/rush behind Jonathan Taylor and his 398 rushing yards, plus six touchdowns. He’s the drumbeat behind an attack that sits ninth in scoring, but the issues are becoming apparent elsewhere in that unit. Daniel Jones has 1,021 passing yards with three touchdowns to four picks, and he’s unable to throw on the run with the same accuracy as he did prior to last year’s Achilles tear. Granted, he’s operating without breakout receiver Alec Pierce, who remains on IR, but that doesn’t excuse the poor performance. Josh Downs leads the team with 249 receiving yards, but tight end Tyler Warren (groin) popped up as questionable on the injury report late in the week and may wind up sidelined – the writing is on the wall after the team elevated fellow tight end Will Mallory to the active roster. A passing game that comes in at 30th in EPA/dropback may not see much success this week, though this is a bounce-back spot. The Colts’ defense is a real problem, too. They grade out at 23rd against the pass and dead last against the run in terms of EPA allowed, and when it comes to scoring, they’re 27th in points conceded.
Titans vs. Colts pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Colts as a -7 favorite at home with -340 odds to win on the Moneyline. The Titans are a +270 road underdog to win outright with the game total set at 44.5 combined points.
This game is admittedly a difficult one to project. The Tennessee offense looks horrendous but gets to take on a very poor defense that has plenty of holes. Conversely, the Indianapolis passing attack is positioned to improve against a struggling secondary, but we’re yet to see Jones look like his old self this year and the potential absence of Warren only complicates the outlook.
This has grossness written all over it, frankly. Taylor should largely get what he wants in the run game and Pollard could do the same, albeit to a lesser extent. The quarterbacks are playing bad football at the moment, though, and for what it’s worth, Tate could see plenty of reps against All-Pro cornerback Sauce Gardner since the Colts dial up man coverage at the sixth-highest rate. Projecting much scoring here makes for a difficult sell, honestly, so I’m tentatively fading points. Assuming Warren winds up sidelined, I’ll feel even better about this pick, but I’m sticking with under 44.5 combined points for the moment prior to his final status.
