Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Michigan Wolverines Prediction and Pick for Saturday 10/17/26

Penn State faces Michigan on Saturday 10/17/26 at 3:30pm ET at The Big House. The Wolverines have been about a 6.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook throughout the week, with the number touching -6 and -7. The total is set at 42.5. Here’s my prediction and best bet for the matchup.

For easy access to quick CFB picks, join the CFB Committee Betting Group on DraftKings Sports.

If you’re looking for expanded analysis of the full college football card, check out this week’s DraftKings Network Daily Bets podcast featuring Pick Six Previews.

Penn State vs. Michigan prediction

I gave Penn State a shot on Saturday night in the “White Out” game against USC. Partially because of how poor USC has been traveling east, and partially blind faith that Penn State would show up when it had to save its season. It did not. Since losing to Oregon in last year’s “White Out” the Nittany Lions are 3-9 in Big Ten play. The three wins all came at the end of last season when favored by a touchdown or more.

Matt Campbell is 0-3 in Big Ten conference play, going 0-3 ATS and failing to cover by 14.7 points per game. Not great. That said, Michigan has not been great either. The Wolverines could easily be sitting 2-3 if justice were served back on that Week 1 Hail Mary against Western Michigan. So who can we trust here?

I say we trust Michigan.

The Wolverines are off a couple of ugly losses. Frankly, they dominated Iowa at home a few weeks ago, but the Hawkeyes got some magic and won on a walk off touchdown. That wasn’t the case the following week at Minnesota, when Bryce Underwood looked awful in another loss.

That said, Michigan caught the bye week at the right time. Kyle Whittingham is a fantastic coach, and will have adjustments in place. One of the adjustments discussed was making a QB change, which ultimately was not the case. But Underwood has to play well in this game. If he doesn’t, Tommy Carr will replace him. I like that Underwood will be playing for his job here, and with two weeks to prep for a very underwhelming Penn State defense.

Much like Michigan’s win at home over Oklahoma, I expect the Wolverines to play to their strength — running the ball. What happened in Penn State’s most embarrassing loss of the season? It gave up over 400 rushing yards to a very physical Northwestern team. Michigan should be able to find a lot of success on the ground in this spot.

I have no concerns on the defensive side for Michigan. This is a strong unit, and will be the toughest defense that Penn State has seen this season, in a hostile road environment. I’ll back the Wolverines two different ways in this one. I laid the points inside of a touchdown, and also played Halftime/Fulltime. That means leading at halftime and winning the game. I like Michigan’s physicality to pay off early on the ground, and the defense to hold up strong.

Penn State vs. Michigan best bet

CFB Best Bet: Michigan -6.5 (-115)

CFB Best Bet: Michigan Halftime/Fulltime (-120)

For all of my college football best bets this week, check out my CFB cheat sheet on DraftKings Network.