A top-ten clash in Provo headlines Week 7’s loaded college football slate. #2 Notre Dame (6-0) has been great, but remains relatively untested. The Fighting Irish have yet to take on a ranked opponent. That’ll change on Saturday when they battle it out with #8 BYU (5-0, 3-0). For the Cougars, this is a massive measuring stick against one of the sport’s elite programs. Taking down the nation’s second-ranked school at home would qualify as a major statement. In this battle between unbeaten heavyweights, which side has the edge tonight?
The Fighting Irish are listed as 10.5-point favorites over the Cougars, with the total set at O/U 46.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and best bet for Saturday’s Notre Dame vs. BYU Week 7 matchup.
Notre Dame vs. BYU prediction, preview
As previously mentioned, this hasn’t been the most challenging early slate for the Irish. Granted, the school hasn’t played complete pushovers. Their Week 1 win over Wisconsin has aged well, and former cellar dwellers Purdue and North Carolina have shown improvement this season. Regardless, none of those victories are going to change perceptions about Marcus Freeman’s crew. A win on the road against the Cougars? That’s a whole different story.
It all starts at quarterback for the visitors from South Bend. CJ Carr is a bonafide NFL prospect, with all the tools needed to succeed at the next level. His numbers this season aren’t the flashiest, but he also hasn’t been asked to do much. Notre Dame has held a fourth quarter lead in all of its games so far, so there’s been little need for a pass-heavy offense. Through six games, the Heisman candidate has notched 1,378 passing yards, 16 touchdowns and just one interception. It helps to have a veteran group of wide receivers, including standout senior Jordan Faison. On the ground, it’s been a committee approach from this coaching staff. Aneyas Williams, Nolan James Jr. and Jonaz Walton have all gotten their fair share of snaps. As a unit, Notre Dame is tied for 18th in college football with 5.1 yards per carry.
Saturday’s contest marks a clear step up in competition for the Irish on offense. This BYU defense is legit, giving up a meager 13.4 points per game. Among Big 12 schools, only #11 Utah (13.0 PPG) has been better. The Cougars make opponents work for their points, rarely coughing up big plays. BYU is allowing the fourth-fewest yards per completion (8.97) and 18th-fewest yards per rush attempt (2.93). If there’s a weakness here, it’s an inability to consistently generate pressure. Through five games, Kalani Sitake’s squad has recorded 11.0 sacks and 32.0 tackles for loss. Those are middle of the road statistics in the Big 12, a conference that isn’t known for defense. In comparison, Notre Dame’s offensive line has allowed a minuscule 2.0 sacks this season.
The Cougars will be relying on their defense now more than ever. That’s due to a lack of firepower on the other side of the ball. Standout running back LJ Martin (lower body) is injured, leaving this group without last season’s Big 12 Player of the Year. In the senior’s absence, BYU failed to do much out of the backfield in Week 6 vs. Iowa State. Bear Bachmeier is dangerous at quarterback, but he’s better with his legs than his arm. This season, the sophomore has thrown for 1,033 yards, ran for 239 more, and racked up 12 total touchdowns. Just as important, he’s only given away one interception. Bachmeier led the Cougars with 109 rushing yards against ISU; the next-closest player only had 21 yards.
Scrambling out of the pocket, or in any capacity, could prove difficult tonight for BYU. The Irish have a claim as college football’s most dominant defense, and it’s easy to see why. A roster littered with experienced players, such as future first-round pick Leonard Moore, can dismantle opposing offenses in any number of ways. Notre Dame has surrendered 214.2 yards per game to opponents, best among all 138 FBS programs. Even more promising, the defense is allowing a minuscule 2.10 yards per carry. Bachmeier has displayed stellar ball control so far, but BYU’s offense runs the risk of becoming one-dimensional without Martin. Through the air, this Irish secondary has already snagged seven interceptions. Keep an eye out for Moore; he missed last week’s game vs. Stanford due to a concussion.
Best Bet: Notre Dame -9.5 (-135)
Even if Martin were playing, this would be an uphill climb for BYU. His absence leaves a deliberate, methodical offense without its spark plug. To make matters worse, Notre Dame’s defense has done an exceptional job against the run. On the other side, Carr should have solid protection against a middling Cougars pass rush. The home team will hang tough, but the Irish should pull away during the second half. Just to be safe, I’ll buy the point to get Notre Dame at -9.5.
