This week in college football, we get the latest edition of the annual Sunflower Showdown in the great state of Kansas. These two Big 12 programs are set to face off in an interstate rivalry as the Kansas Jayhawks head to Manhattan for a meeting against the Kansas State Wildcats. This has been a lopsided series with K-State winning 17 consecutive matchups heading into Saturday, but anything can happen in this sport.
Here’s a preview, prediction and pick for Kansas vs. Kansas State on Saturday’s college football slate.
Kansas vs. Kansas State prediction, preview
The Jayhawks enter at 2-3 this season, still seeking their first win in Big 12 play. It should be noted they have just one win over an FBS opponent – which came in a 55-0 thrashing of Middle Tennessee State – and have otherwise lost by double digits to two nationally ranked programs while dropping a one-score game to Arizona State. The good news is that some of the numbers aren’t too shabby. Kansas averages 33.6 PPG and 475.6 YPG on the offensive side of the ball. Quarterback Isaiah Marshall hasn’t seen particularly high volume and has just 1,143 passing yards with eight touchdowns, four picks and a 53.9% completion rate, far from stellar numbers. His top target is Nik McMillan, who’s up to 18 catches for 345 yards and three TDs on the year. Nahzae Cox has been a deep threat with over 200 yards and two scores on just seven grabs, but it’s halfback Dylan Edwards who makes this offense go. He leads the team with 318 rushing yards and three scores on the ground, also ranking third on the roster with 13 receptions for 127 yards and another TD. Defensively, the Jayhawks are giving up 21.8 PPG and 304.8 YPG, also some solid marks. However, they’re certainly deflated a bit by the fact that they allowed only six points across a pair of wins against lesser competition. The nine sacks aren’t inspiring and they have just one interception, too, so the defense leaves something to be desired.
The Wildcats are 3-2 themselves, but they’re also yet to win a game against Big 12 competition. Wins against Washington State and Tulane were solid, but they’re now coming off back-to-back losses to Cincinnati and Houston. This is a great spot for Kansas State to win its first game. The Wildcats average 35.6 PPG and 444.0 YPG, and they’re slightly more pass-happy than their opponent here. Avery Johnson has a 63.8% completion rate with 1,092 passing yards, nine touchdowns and three interceptions – his production doesn’t stop there, though, also tallying a team-best 330 yards with three scores on the ground. Rodney Fields Jr. is the main halfback with 320 yards and four touchdowns, while Jaron Tibbs (20 REC, 201 YDS, 2 TD) and Joshua Manning (17 REC, 173 YDS, 2 TD) are the main receiving weapons. The defense has allowed 19.2 PPG and 291.8 YPG, though they conceded 31 and 35 points across the last two contests. They have 12 sacks on the year and the pass defense truly excels, allowing only 133.4 passing yards per contest; they’re yet to record an interception, though.
Kansas vs. Kansas State pick, best bet
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Kansas State enters as a 4.5-point favorite with -198 odds on the Moneyline; Kansas is a +164 underdog to win outright. The game total sits at 55.5 combined points between these teams.
This should probably come out to a win for the Wildcats, but this could be a very close game. Looking at the most basic of the numbers, these teams profile somewhat similarly in terms of raw scoring and yardage on a per-game basis, both for and against. While K-State does have an advantage, it’s not exactly a major one. The key for the Jayhawks will be exploiting an opposing front seven that’s allowing 158.4 yards per game on the ground at a clip of 4.3 YPC. Kansas absolutely needs to hold the ball and work to win the time-of-possession battle, keeping Johnson and Co. off the field as much as possible. It’s tougher to trust their own quarterback’s arm, but Marshall should continue to put the ball in McMillan’s hands and let his top wideout go to work. Still, so long as the Jayhawks’ backfield finds some success in this matchup, there’s a clear avenue to keeping this within that 4.5-point spread, even on the road.
Best Bet: Kansas +4.5 (-110)
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