The Notre Dame Fighting Irish and BYU Cougars will face off at 7:30 p.m. ET as one of the primetime matchups of tonight’s college football slate.
Both teams enter with undefeated records and have their sights set on a deep College Football Playoff run. This is a matchup that will have some massive seeding implications regardless of the result, and it is a key measuring stick matchup for both sides.
Looking at the odds, Notre Dame is favored by 10.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook and holds -395 odds of winning outright. BYU holds +310 odds of winning outright, with the game total set at 46.5 points.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action beyond backing a side or total. Here are my favorite player prop bets for the Saturday night CFB matchup.
Bear Bachmeier to Record 40+ Rushing Yards (-106)
Tonight’s matchup is massive for both sides, and Bear Bachmeier sets the tone for BYU. The sophomore has established himself as a legitimate dual-threat quarterback, with the Cougars increasingly relying on his mobility in his second season at the helm. Through the opening five games, Bachmeier is averaging 47.8 rushing yards per game, compared with the 37.6 yards per game he produced as a freshman. This has been especially evident lately, with the 20-year-old breaking free for 109 rushing yards in the previous game against Iowa State after recording 66 against TCU.
There is no denying this is a difficult matchup against Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish rank among the nation’s best in points allowed and have surrendered just 58.3 rushing yards per game this season. However, Bachmeier presents a different challenge as a dual-threat quarterback. Notre Dame will continue to bring pressure, but Bachmeier’s ability to make plays with his legs provides another avenue for BYU to move the football.
Another key factor working in Bachmeier’s favor is that BYU running back LJ Martin will miss Saturday night’s game and is expected to be sidelined for several weeks due to a lower-body injury. Martin leads the team with 344 rushing yards this season, and his absence puts more responsibility on the quarterback to contribute to the ground game. Bachmeier has done an excellent job picking up chunk yardage in scramble situations, in addition to making plays on designed runs. He has looked ready for the bright lights of big moments throughout the season, and this is another major opportunity for the BYU star. Expect the additional responsibility to help Bachmeier reach this total, making 40+ rushing yards an attainable target.
Jonaz Walton to Record 70+ Rushing Yards (+138)
On the other side of the rushing matchup, Jonaz Walton has opened some eyes in the Notre Dame backfield. While he is not quite at Jeremiyah Love’s level just yet, Walton has recorded a team-high 409 rushing yards this season while averaging a massive 7.9 yards per carry. He enters this game in strong form, with 181 and 120 rushing yards in his past two games. This production has also come with an increase in rushing volume, as he recorded a season-high 23 carries against North Carolina before rushing 13 times against Stanford.
BYU’s defense is no pushover by any means. The Cougars enter this game ranked eighth nationally in points allowed and are limiting opponents to 80.4 rushing yards per game. However, some of this effectiveness has been driven by BYU playing with the lead and forcing opponents to lean on the pass at a higher rate. It ranks 78th in opponent rush EPA so far this season. The Cougars will also have home-field advantage in this game, and Provo is not an easy place to play. While CJ Carr is the driving force of the offense, expect the raucous atmosphere to push Notre Dame toward keeping the ball on the ground in the early stages.
The big-play ability of Walton is especially encouraging. He is capable of breaking free and reaching the second level on any given touch, and he is in prime form in recent weeks. He needed just 13 carries to reach 181 yards against Stanford and is averaging 81.8 rushing yards per game overall. As long as Notre Dame can create space at the line of scrimmage, the freshman running back can get to the second level and potentially change the game. Nolan James Jr. and Aneyas Williams will also play roles in the rushing attack, but Walton has established himself as a major contributor and demonstrated the ability to produce explosive plays in the open field.
Expect CJ Carr to continue driving the Fighting Irish offense and help keep the defense honest, which will create running lanes for Notre Dame. Walton will not need an especially high number of opportunities to break free for a massive gain, making him a major X-factor in this matchup. Count on his recent production to continue, and for the standout running back to eclipse 70 rushing yards for the third consecutive game.
