It all comes down to these final seven games. We’ve witnessed a historic WNBA season, and it culminates in a showdown between the Atlanta Dream and the Golden State Valkyries. These two teams are loaded with star talent and are playing incredible playoff basketball. No time to mess around: Let’s get into how these two teams got here, how they match up, and who is going to take Game 1.
The Valkyries enter as 2.5-point home favorites with -180 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Dream are +120 underdogs, with the game total set at 154.5 points.
Dream vs. Valkyries Preview
Last season was a season of arrival for the Atlanta Dream. The Rhyne Howard-Allisha Gray connection fired on all cylinders during Karl Smesko’s first season as head coach, powering Atlanta to the best record in the Eastern Conference and the league’s second-best net rating. It won 15 of its last 18 regular-season games, building momentum heading into a series against the Indiana Fever, which they played without Caitlin Clark.
Losing Game 3 at home in bitter fashion was a tremendous letdown. The Dream’s excellent defense let Kelsey Mitchell walk all over it, and Aliyah Boston dominated in the paint all series long. Atlanta’s biggest problem came home to roost: It didn’t have a center it could truly depend on.
All of that changed this offseason with Angel Reese’s acquisition. Though the Dream posted the same record, they looked like a much better team, especially on defense. Reese, the Defensive Player of the Year, is the mobile defensive anchor who makes it all click for Atlanta. Rhyne Howard can take more risks and create chaos, while Jordin Canada can get more straightforward matchups at guard. Putting Reese front and center has transformed this team entirely, and it swept its way through the first two playoff rounds due to her excellence.
Golden State followed a similar path over the last two seasons. Last year, in its debut campaign, the expansion franchise made the playoffs thanks to its incredible depth and defense. Head coach Natalie Nakase pushed the Valkyries to become the first expansion team to make the playoffs, an outstanding accomplishment, but their first-round loss to the Minnesota Lynx still stung.
This season, they came for revenge. Adding All-Star Gabby Williams felt like an important next step to take them up a level in the playoff mix. But nobody outside the Valkyries organization saw this coming. Fueled by Williams and Kiah Stokes, Golden State had the league’s best defense during the regular season and captured the second overall seed with a 32-12 record. It got a fair test in the first round from the Dallas Wings, who pushed the Valkyries to the edge in three games, but Golden State ultimately prevailed.
The semifinals against the Las Vegas Aces were personal for Nakase. As a former assistant coach under Becky Hammon, Nakase learned how to win in Vegas and had to prove that the student could defeat the master. No doubt remained after the series: The Valkyries swept the Aces in three games, including a tremendous Las Vegas collapse in Game 3. Williams dominated against the team that had eliminated her from the playoffs three times in the last four years, scoring sweet revenge.
It’s all about the defenses in this series. Atlanta, led by Reese, is one of the league’s best defensive teams. But how does its defense adapt to Golden State? No team shoots more threes than the Valks, which puts pressure on perimeter players to get their hands up and stay active on the glass. Rhyne Howard will likely get the Gabby Williams matchup, who the Valkyries count on to generate offense when everything else breaks down; whether she can hold up there is a huge factor in this matchup. The interior game is worth watching, as well: Atlanta quietly had a poor interior defense, and the Valkyries may take advantage of that with cuts and put-backs.
For Atlanta, it’s about protecting the ball and getting inside. Golden State’s passing-suppression style led to the league’s lowest opponent two-point rate; it suffocates passing lanes, keeps you on the perimeter, and forces you into shots you’re not comfortable taking. If the Dream can consistently get the ball inside to Reese, they’ll have to deal with Kiah Stokes, one of the league’s best rim protectors. That’s going to be a problem for Rhyne Howard, as well, who gets downhill more often than any other WNBA wing. If the Valkyries can set the tone defensively and keep the paint empty, it’s going to be a long series for Atlanta.
Allisha Gray is a significant X-factor for this series. Her hand injury threatened to derail her entire playoff run, but a week-long break has given Gray plenty of time to recover. She practiced on Thursday, a good sign for her availability in Game 1, but it’s unclear how productive she’ll be. As Atlanta’s best shooter, she is immensely valuable for this series; without her, the Valkyries could pressure Howard and Canada heavily, tilting the series more in their favor.
Now that we know these two teams a bit better, who will take home the win?
Dream vs. Valkyries Pick, Best Bet
It’s important to remember that the Valkyries swept the three-game regular-season series. In those matchups, Golden State’s elite defense held Atlanta to 66, 75, and 83 points, respectively. The Valkyries are an extremely frustrating team to play against, and they love to throw a haymaker to start off a matchup. Golden State will come out swinging at Ballhalla to take Game 1 and set the tone for this electric series.
