It was quite the offseason for the Los Angeles Lakers. The LeBron James era is over, and the transition to the Luka Doncic era has begun. GM Rob Pelinka has been busy remaking the team in Doncic’s image, and early preseason results are promising. Will this translate to playoff success, or will the Lakers disappoint again in the postseason? First things first, they have to get through 82 in a saturated Western Conference. In this article, I’ll look at their win total over/under and predict the best way to bet their win line.
Lakers Win Total Projection
Here’s a look at the Lakers’ projected win total on the DraftKings Sportsbook:
Last season, the Lakers posted a 53-29 record in Doncic’s first full season with the team. That was enough for a fourth-place finish in the conference, and they won a 4-2 first-round series over the Houston Rockets. But they hit a wall against the Thunder in the conference semifinals, getting swept by the defending champs. Now that LeBron James is gone and the team has been remade, oddsmakers project a significant drop in wins.
To understand this drop, we have to look at their busy offseason.
Lakers Offseason Summary
IN: Walker Kessler, Quentin Grimes, Sandro Mamukelashvili, Collin Sexton, Jaden Hardy, Kevon Looney, Matisse Thybulle, Ziaire Williams, Cam Carr
OUT: LeBron James, Marcus Smart, Luke Kennard, Deandre Ayton, Rui Hachimura, Jaxson Hayes, Maxi Kleber
RE-SIGNED: Austin Reaves
That was a lot of names. Let’s start with the departures: LeBron James is obviously the headliner, but the Lakers have well and truly remade their rotation. Six of their top-ten players by minutes played departed over the offseason; only Doncic, Reaves, Jake LaRavia, and Jarred Vanderbilt remain. Smart and Hachimura were two of LA’s most important defenders, which says a lot given how underwhelming their defense was last year.
Already an offensively tilted team, the Lakers’ offseason signaled a clear direction: more offense. Quentin Grimes and Sandro Mamukelashvili project as off-ball fits next to Doncic and Reaves, two players who can shoot well, cut often and handle the ball in a pinch. Collin Sexton is projected to be the backup ball-handler, but can play off-ball alongside Doncic or Reaves.
A big problem here is the defense. Matisse Thybulle is a solid defensive rotation piece, but he’s such an offensive black hole that the Lakers can’t give him big minutes. Kevon Looney is solid defensively in his role, but he isn’t the player he used to be with the Warriors. It all hinges on Walker Kessler, who the Lakers paid a pretty penny for. A defensive stud for the Jazz, Kessler made a consistently positive defensive impact in Utah. In his four NBA seasons, Kessler’s defensive net rating ranked in the 80th percentile or better in three of those campaigns.
This team isn’t hard to understand. Doncic is an offense unto himself, and he has plenty of capable scorers to share the load. But this team will fight an uphill battle defensively all season, and you can argue that Kessler matters more to their defense than Doncic does to their offense. Is it enough of a concern to sink them below 50 wins?
Lakers 2026-27 Regular-Season Win Total Pick
Here’s what favors LA: offense wins regular-season games. Last season, 10 teams had an offensive rating of 117 or better. Including the Lakers, nine of those teams won 50+ games, averaging 55 wins. Only the Charlotte Hornets, for a myriad of reasons, finished below the mark. And I’d be pretty surprised if the Lakers finished with an offensive rating lower than 117.
You’re probably thinking, “Hey Charlie, what about that LeBron fella? I hear he’s pretty good offensively.” He is, but he didn’t mesh well with Doncic. The Lakers’ offense was actually better with LeBron off the floor over the last two seasons; in his 21 previous seasons, James was a net positive for his team’s offense.
With Doncic, James, and Reaves on the court last season, the Lakers posted a strong offensive rating of 120.5. Luka and Reaves were nearly identical at 120.2, while LeBron and Reaves were at 111. LeBron and Luka alone were at a solid but unspectacular 116.8. These numbers tell a story: Luka is the straw that stirs the drink, and Reaves adds flavor, but LeBron started to sour things.
I fully expect this team to fall apart come playoff time. There are too many defensive weaknesses to exploit, and truly heliocentric teams rarely go deep in the playoffs. But the regular season will be promising for LA, and they should win a lot of track meets. I’m juicing up their win total a bit and taking a shot on the Lakers winning 50 games again.
