Blake Harrell takes East Carolina’s three-game winning streak to Birmingham, where Alex Mortensen needs to repair an offense that vanished after halftime at Memphis. UAB never added to their 13 points. Mortensen sticks with Ryder Burton for Thursday’s homecoming game at Protective Stadium. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the UAB Blazers and the East Carolina Pirates.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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UAB vs. ECU prediction, preview
Backed up at ECU’s three against Rice, TJ Engleman Jr. cut off an inside-zone block and tore 43 yards up the sideline. Later, he bounced outside and scored from the same distance. I’d have Jordan Davis make UAB tackle him all evening. Engleman needed only 14 carries for his 136 yards; the Blazers have allowed 4.6 yards per rush through six games. Todd Grantham will need Jo’Tavion Pierce coming downhill from safety. His defenders have already conceded touchdowns on 14 of 19 red-zone visits, so I expect Engleman to finish some of what he starts.
Bring Pierce forward, though, and Emory Williams gets a chance to throw behind him. Ray Ray Joseph caught both touchdown passes against Rice. Williams also sailed throws out of bounds and averaged a miserable 4.6 yards per attempt. Davis can spare him longer throws with screens, if the receivers finally block them properly. Harrell sounded thoroughly fed up with all that nonsense Monday. I understand why: Davis calls those throws to spare Williams pressure, and poor blocking can leave him facing far too much of it across an entire game.
Grantham has Marlin Dean to punish those long-yardage downs. He has five sacks through six games, while UAB has limited opposing passers to 6.4 yards per attempt. Rice sacked Williams twice and stopped ECU on 11 of 16 third downs. Harrell answered by going for fourth down twice during a 17-play touchdown drive; Williams and Engleman ran for both conversions. I expect Engleman’s speed to lift ECU into the twenties. Williams still has to complete the throws that stop Grantham from crowding his running back.
ECU vs. UAB pick, best bet
Mortensen needs to give Burton that same rushing help. Rod Robinson II ground through 19 carries for only 65 yards at Memphis, and ECU has allowed a stingy 3.2 yards per rush through five games. Bam McReynolds, averaging 5.0 yards per carry on 63 attempts this season, looks likelier to loosen that front. Mix his runs with Nate Rogers’ option package, and Mortensen can send Ty Mims behind linebackers stepping toward the ball. Mims caught three passes for 79 yards at Memphis; Burton managed just 52 yards on his other 17 attempts.
UAB may lose center Adam Lepkowski, too. Cooper Young has practiced at the position; at home, at least, he should have less trouble making his protection calls heard when the crowd hushes for offense. UAB has already surrendered 16 sacks through six games, though. They’ve scored touchdowns on just five of 15 red-zone visits this season; Delange has made 14 of 16 field goals. I’ll take under 47.5.
Best bet: Under 47.5 (-110).
Projected score: East Carolina 24, UAB 20.
Best Bet: UAB vs. ECU u47.5 total points scored (-110)
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