You better read faster. Because this game is starting much, much earlier than expected.
With rain forecasted in the Cleveland area on Thursday evening, Game 3 of the ALCS was moved from 6:00 p.m. ET to 1:00 p.m. ET. That’s right. We’re got a League Championship matinee.
Can the Guardians take a 2-1 series lead? Or will the Rays get back on track? Let’s break down this crucial tilt with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Rays vs. Guardians pick, best bets today
- Under 6.5 (-102): Gavin Williams has struck out 52.2% of the batters he’s faced in the postseason. That’s wild. Meanwhile, Griffin Jax closed out the regular season by allowing a single earned run or fewer in seven of his last eight starts. I’m envisioning this contest playing out a lot like Game 2, where only four runs crossed the plate, and three of those were unearned due to a Jose Ramirez error.
- Gavin Williams 7+ Strikeouts (+102): Including this year’s playoffs, Williams has hit this prop in 13 of his last 16 starts. He also struck out nine in his lone outing against the Rays in the regular season, back on April 29. While Tampa owns the league’s lowest strikeout rate (18.8%), I believe Williams to be matchup proof.
Rays vs. Guardians prediction, preview
The headlining story of Game 3 is Gavin Williams, who for those keeping track, is somehow striking out 52.2% of the batters he’s faced so far in the postseason. The most impressive — and most clutch — performance for the hulking right-hander came last Saturday in the do-or-die Game 5 of the ALDS against the White Sox, when Williams tossed 5.2 scoreless innings, surrendering just a single hit and striking out 12. That start is made even more remarkable when you remember that Williams threw a scoreless inning of relief in Game 4 just two days prior. The 27-year-old is a hoss.
It’s not like this is coming out of nowhere, either. Williams was fantastic throughout the regular season, pitching to a 3.76 ERA and a 2.95 SIERA over 184.1 innings of work. Williams’ 33.2% strikeout rate was the third-highest qualified mark in baseball, trailing only Cy Young candidates Jacob Misiorowski and Dylan Cease. Really, the lone knock of Williams was a propensity to give up loud contact on the rare occasion that an opponent put a ball into play. The RHP’s 46.6% opponent hard hit rate actually ranked in the first percentile of the league, while an 11.4% opponent barrel rate was third percentile.
This creates an incredibly interesting matchup of contrasting styles with the Rays. Tampa owned MLB’s lowest strikeout rate during the regular season (18.8%), yet that came with the caveat of also owning the league’s lowest barrel rate (5.7%) and second-lowest hard hit rate (34.6%). That means the Rays might be able to produce more batted ball events than usual off Williams, but they probably won’t be all that impactful. Though, Tampa’s team speed and elite base running skills do sometimes matter more than what we’d generally designate as “good” contact.
Toeing the mound opposite Williams will be Griffin Jax, set to make his first-career postseason start. While some questioned the decision to convert the right-hander back into a starting pitcher, you can not argue with Tampa’s results. Across the second-half of the regular season, Jax was marvelous, overcoming an unsustainably low 63.1% strand rate, and a brief IL stint, to post a 3.61 ERA and a 2.67 FIP. Heck, Jax did not allow a single earned run in his final 13.0 innings, and he’s conceded one earned run or fewer in seven of his last eight starts. Not too shabby at all.
The Guardians’ .692 OPS in the playoffs is the second-highest mark in MLB, yet that’s not exactly a ringing endorsement of offensive talent. Nor was Cleveland’s 23rd-ranked wRC+ (97) or 27th-ranked ISO (.142) during the regular season. With these two studs on the mound and these two underwhelming lineups taking hacks, this might end up as another low-scoring affair.
