Below you’ll find my NFL Week 6 picks, starting with my best bet for TNF, along with a couple of player props for Sunday that stem from a recent trade. I’ll update the article on Friday and Sunday with more picks for the remainder of the card, so be sure to check back for updates.
New York Jets at New England Patriots (Sunday 1pm ET)
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (Sunday 1pm ET)
The Jets are off a big win over the Browns and head to Foxborough for a division game. The Patriots avoided the letdown spot following their big road win in Buffalo and dominated the Raiders last week. Last year New England had a rough start to the season, but found its footing around this time to rip off a run. The schedule might not allow the same this time around, with a big Thursday night game in Chicago on deck, but I trust the Pats to win these home games as big favorites. The defense is playing well and should have success against a lacking Jets offense. Meanwhile, New England should be able to have success running the ball at home.
The Colts were in an impossible spot last week, returning home from an international game and playing on the road in Pittsburgh. Now they get a bounce-back spot against an AFC South doormat. The Titans are 0-5, losing by double digits on average. They have a below average run defense, and historically get cooked by Jonathan Taylor — who has rushed for over 100 yards and scored three touchdowns in each of the last three meetings between these teams. Look for Indy to lean on the rushing attack and get back in the win column.
NFL Pick: Patriots/Colts Moneyline Parlay (-135)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday 1pm ET)
Roman Wilson was injured early last week against the Colts and has now been placed on IR. Germie Bernard stepped into Wilson’s role and produced, finishing with six receptions for 80 yards on nine targets. It takes a lot to earn the trust of Aaron Rodgers, but the rookie from Alabama appears to have done so.
Rodgers has been hyping up Bernard and seems to really like him. That matters. When you become one of Rodgers “guys” he’s going to look your way. I’m expecting that again here against Tampa.
NFL Pick: Germie Bernard 44+ Receiving Yards (-110)
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (Sunday 4:05pm ET)
So, the Cardinals traded Harrison away for draft picks. That means they replaced him internally. Who got Harrison’s role in the offense? That’d be Jalen Brooks. Formerly a 7th-round pick by the Cowboys, he latched on with Arizona this season, but only played 13 snaps combined in the first four games.
However, Brooks was unleashed following the Harrison trade, lining up on 39 snaps against the Lions on Sunday. The coaching staff has spoken highly of him, and feel he’s ready for the role. Now, Brooks only managed two receptions for 16 yards, but was targeted seven times in the passing game. That included two unsuccessful targets in the end zone.
That’s a huge target share for a player like Brooks. If he can get on the same page with the rest of the offense with another full week of practice under his belt, there could be a breakout here. I’ll start by backing the modest reception prop here, given the target share Brooks saw last week. But as the week goes on, I’ll likely add some longer shot type of plays here on Brooks.
The game script is there as well, as Arizona should be throwing as nearly a two touchdown road dog at the Rams.
NFL Pick: Jalen Brooks 2+ Receptions (-150)
NFL Pick: Jalen Brooks Anytime Touchdown (+700)
Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (Sunday 9:30am ET – London)
Most people saw the Marvin Harrison Jr. trade as relatively insignificant. It probably is when it comes to the landscape of the NFL. Somehow, that trade is responsible for two different player props on my NFL Week 6 betting card. We’ll start with Harrison himself, who is making his debut for the Texans in London against the Jaguars.
The number is wildly low here, and I think two narrative are working in Harrison’s favor here. First of all, we can expect Harrison to give max effort after getting his wish and being shipped out of Arizona. Why was Houston a good fit? Reuniting with C.J. Stroud after all the success this duo had together at Ohio State. Stroud will put an emphasis on welcoming his former teammate and getting him involved.
I think the narrative alone is enough to play this one, but the matchup also work’s in favor of Houston throwing the ball. The Texans are underdogs against a Jags run defense that has not yet allowed an opposing running back to top 40 yards this season. David Montgomery is doubtful to play. Stroud should be slinging it, and Harrison will be in the game plan.
NFL Pick: Marvin Harrison Jr. 21+ Receiving Yards (-110)
Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos (Thursday 8:15pm ET)
You’ve probably seen the trend floating around that nine consecutive NFL primetime games have seen the underdog win outright. Fading Denver as a home underdog in primetime is somewhat uncomfortable, but the play on the field should be a pretty significant mismatch. The trend ends tonight with Seattle.
Denver has been one of the least explosive and most frustrating offenses in the NFL. This isn’t a very good spot to find your footing, against an elite Seattle defense that ranks at or near the top of every major statistical category. On the flip side of the ball, Jaxon Smith-Njigba will be in position to make explosive plays for the offense.
JSN is averaging well over 100 receiving yards per game and has 10 touchdowns in five games this season. Patrick Surtain II has been ruled out with an ankle injury, leaving JSN to carve up the backups.
The Seahawks are 4-0 off a loss over the past two seasons, winning the bounce-back game by 8.75 points per. The loss to the 49ers was very flukey, with turnovers leading to all three touchdowns Seattle gave up in the first half. I’ll back ’em to make it 5-0 off a loss.
NFL Pick: Seahawks ML (-142)
