Below you’ll find my NFL Week 6 picks, starting with my best bet for TNF, along with a couple of player props for Sunday that stem from a recent trade. I’ll update the article on Friday and Sunday with more picks for the remainder of the card, so be sure to check back for updates.
Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos (Thursday 8:15pm ET)
You’ve probably seen the trend floating around that nine consecutive NFL primetime games have seen the underdog win outright. Fading Denver as a home underdog in primetime is somewhat uncomfortable, but the play on the field should be a pretty significant mismatch. The trend ends tonight with Seattle.
Denver has been one of the least explosive and most frustrating offenses in the NFL. This isn’t a very good spot to find your footing, against an elite Seattle defense that ranks at or near the top of every major statistical category. On the flip side of the ball, Jaxon Smith-Njigba will be in position to make explosive plays for the offense.
JSN is averaging well over 100 receiving yards per game and has 10 touchdowns in five games this season. Patrick Surtain II has been ruled out with an ankle injury, leaving JSN to carve up the backups.
The Seahawks are 4-0 off a loss over the past two seasons, winning the bounce-back game by 8.75 points per. The loss to the 49ers was very flukey, with turnovers leading to all three touchdowns Seattle gave up in the first half. I’ll back ’em to make it 5-0 off a loss.
NFL Pick: Seahawks ML (-142)
Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (Sunday 9:am ET – London)
Most people saw the Marvin Harrison Jr. trade as relatively insignificant. It probably is when it comes to the landscape of the NFL. Somehow, that trade is responsible for two different player props on my NFL Week 6 betting card. We’ll start with Harrison himself, who is making his debut for the Texans in London against the Jaguars.
The number is wildly low here, and I think two narrative are working in Harrison’s favor here. First of all, we can expect Harrison to give max effort after getting his wish and being shipped out of Arizona. Why was Houston a good fit? Reuniting with C.J. Stroud after all the success this duo had together at Ohio State. Stroud will put an emphasis on welcoming his former teammate and getting him involved.
I think the narrative alone is enough to play this one, but the matchup also work’s in favor of Houston throwing the ball. The Texans are underdogs against a Jags run defense that has not yet allowed an opposing running back to top 40 yards this season. David Montgomery is doubtful to play. Stroud should be slinging it, and Harrison will be in the gameplan.
NFL Pick: Marvin Harrison Jr. 21+ Receiving Yards (-110)
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (Sunday 4:05pm ET)
So, the Cardinals traded Harrison away for draft picks. That means they replaced him internally. Who got Harrison’s role in the offense? That’d be Jalen Brooks. Formerly a 7th-round pick by the Cowboys, he latched on with Arizona this season, but only played 13 snaps combined in the first four games.
However, Brooks was unleashed following the Harrison trade, lining up on 39 snaps against the Lions on Sunday. The coaching staff has spoken highly of him, and feel he’s ready for the role. Now, Brooks only managed two receptions for 16 yards, but was targeted seven times in the passing game. That included two unsuccessful targets in the end zone.
That’s a huge target share for a player like Brooks. If he can get on the same page with the rest of the offense with another full week of practice under his belt, there could be a breakout here. I’ll start by backing the modest reception prop here, given the target share Brooks saw last week. But as the week goes on, I’ll likely add some longer shot type of plays here on Brooks.
The game script is there as well, as Arizona should be throwing as nearly a two touchdown road dog at the Rams.
NFL Pick: Jalen Brooks 2+ Receptions (-150)
