Is this really happening?
After two straight championships, the Dodgers are on the brink of elimination. Following three straight NLCS wins, it’s the Brewers that are on the cusp of a World Series appearance. Still, a 3-0 series advantage doesn’t guarantee anything. Los Angeles will be motivated to go down swinging, especially in front of its home fans. Can Milwaukee sweep its way to the pennant tonight in Game 4?
The Dodgers are favorites (-157) over the Brewers; the over/under is set at 7.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Thursday’s NLCS showdown between Milwaukee and Los Angeles on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Brewers vs. Dodgers pick, best bet today
- Dodgers -1.5 (+138): Los Angeles has looked brutal over the past week, but Thursday’s game could be a get right spot. Drohan is untested, and the Dodgers love hitting against left-handers. On the other side, Glasnow is a proven arm with a history of success vs. Milwaukee. In what might be a last gasp, the defending champions keep their season alive tonight.
Brewers vs. Dodgers prediction, preview
What a postseason it’s been for the Brewers. The NL Central winners have a knack for overcoming adversity, with last night’s comeback the latest proof. On offense, Pat Murphy’s club opts for an assembly line approach. Despite a lack of major power threats, this team finished with the league’s second-most runs scored (832). Milwaukee ranked second in batting average (832), first in on-base percentage (.341) and third in OPS (.744). Seven different members of the active roster (minimum 300 plate appearances) have a wRC+ above 100. Simply put, there is no let up from this group towards opposing pitchers.
Getting this offense going could prove difficult tonight against Tyler Glasnow. One of Los Angeles’ quartet of aces, the right-hander is dangerous when healthy. Through 74.0 innings this season (13 starts), he’s notched a 3.53 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 98 strikeouts (11.9 K/9). It was a mixed bag for the veteran last week in the NLDS. Against the Braves, Glasnow tossed 4.1 innings of one-run ball. However, he also walked five batters in the process. Any lack of command could lead to more devastating results against this contact-oriented Brewers lineup. With that being said, the former All-Star has done well in this spot before. During two meetings with Milwaukee last season, he allowed just one earned run (0.82 ERA).
As for the home team, it’s do or die time in these bats. It’s not as if we haven’t seen the defending champs do damage during the postseason. A lineup loaded with superstars should come out angry with their backs against the wall. Regardless, much of the team’s success depends on Shohei Ohtani. The four-time MVP has been downright awful in October; he’s batting .182 over seven games this postseason. If there’s a silver lining, the slugger got on base two times in Game 3. Kyle Tucker and Max Muncy are the only Los Angeles regulars to record a playoff OPS above .700.
Milwaukee isn’t afraid to mix and match on the mound when necessary. That might be the approach in Game 4, with Shane Drohan getting the start. Granted, the rookie has done a decent job this season. Over 124.2 innings pitched, he’s accounted for a 4.19 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 125 strikeouts (9.0 K/9). However, this is the postseason; there’s no time for a learning curve. Don’t expect more than a couple of innings from the 27-year-old this evening. The Dodgers have posted the league’s fifth-best OPS against left-handed pitching (.755), so they’ll need to strike while the iron is hot. It’s difficult to fade the Brewers given their outright dominance in this series. Still, I have a hard time believing the defending champs will drop another game in which they hold a clear edge on the mound. Back LA to avoid the sweep on Thursday night.
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